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Nets vs Kings prediction NBA · Thursday, December 31

Thu, Dec 31 · 6:00 PM ETGolden 1 Center · DAZN (YES)

Brooklyn Nets

0-4 · away

Projected score

114-113

Sacramento Kings

0-4 · home

54% win BKNwin SAC 46%

FavoriteBKN

Projected margin1.2

Projected total227

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Sacramento Kings (0-4) host the Brooklyn Nets (0-4) on Thursday, December 31 at 6:00 PM ET at Golden 1 Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Nets a 54% chance to win and projects a 114-113 score (Nets – Kings), about 227 total points. This season, the Kings are 0-2 at home and the Nets are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Kings and 0-4 for the Nets (current streaks: Kings L4, Nets L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Egor Demin (Nets), Tyler Bilodeau (Nets), Dylan Cardwell (Kings), Maxime Raynaud (Kings), Keegan Murray (Kings) and Ben Simmons (Kings). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Kings 113 – 114 Nets, a margin of about 1.2 points in favor of the Nets and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Kings will be without Dylan Cardwell or Maxime Raynaud (and 2 others). The Nets will be without Egor Demin or Tyler Bilodeau. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Kings need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Nets' defense allows clearly fewer points (117.9 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Kings

Team strength (adjusted point differential)SAC -10.1 / BKN -8.4 per game

-1.7

Home-court advantageKings at home

+2.3

InjuriesSAC: 4 out, 0 questionable · BKN: 2 out, 0 questionable

-1.8

Expected marginfor Kings

-1.2

Scenarios

Kings win by 10+

18%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Nets win by 10+

24%

Stat comparison Current season

BKNSAC

108.0

Points scored / game

110.2

117.9

Points allowed / game

122.1

42.9 %

Field goal %

44.5 %

36.7 %

3-point %

30.0 %

42.3

3-pointers attempted / game

32.5

76.6 %

Free throw %

73.1 %

43.5

Rebounds / game

41.5

24.0

Assists / game

22.8

10.0

Steals / game

6.8

4.0

Blocks / game

2.5

17.5

Turnovers / game

14.3

Players to watch

Nets

Michael Porter Jr.F · #1722.8pts / game

Julius RandleF · #305.8assists

Julius RandleF · #307.5rebounds

Kings

Zach LaVineG · #827.2pts / game

Domantas SabonisF · #117.2assists

Domantas SabonisF · #1116.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

BKN

L144-128L110-103L125-121L136-109L125-124 OT

SAC

L126-97L121-96L128-120L123-112L130-103

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

BKN 54% · SAC 46%

ESPN BPI

BKN 58% · SAC 42%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

BKN		SAC
0-4	Record	0-4
108.0	Points scored / game	110.2
117.9	Points allowed / game	122.1
-8.4	Adjusted margin / game	-10.1
L4	Current streak	L4
0-4	Last 10 games	0-4
0-2 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
20-62 (-10.0)	Last season	22-60 (-10.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Nets

Egor Demin GOut

Tyler Bilodeau FOut

Injury report Kings

Dylan Cardwell COut

Maxime Raynaud COut

Keegan Murray FOut

Ben Simmons GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.