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Thunder vs Grizzlies prediction NBA · Saturday, March 20

Sat, Mar 20 · 8:00 PM ETFedExForum · NBA TV, KSBI, Thunder App, DAZN MEM

Oklahoma City Thunder

4-1 · away

Projected score

114-112

Memphis Grizzlies

4-0 · home

58% win OKCwin MEM 42%

FavoriteOKC

Projected margin2.5

Projected total226

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1) on Saturday, March 20 at 8:00 PM ET at FedExForum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Thunder a 58% chance to win and projects a 114-112 score (Thunder – Grizzlies), about 226 total points. This season, the Grizzlies are 1-0 at home and the Thunder are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-0 for the Grizzlies and 4-1 for the Thunder (current streaks: Grizzlies W4, Thunder L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jalen Williams (Thunder), Alex Caruso (Thunder), Thomas Sorber (Thunder), Nikola Topic (Thunder) and Cason Wallace (Thunder). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

The Thunder are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Grizzlies 112 – 114 Thunder, a margin of about 2.5 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso (and 3 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-1.8 vs +7.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Grizzlies need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (106.9 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Grizzlies

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MEM -1.8 / OKC +7.6 per game

-9.3

Home-court advantageGrizzlies at home

+2.3

InjuriesMEM: 0 out, 0 questionable · OKC: 5 out, 1 questionable

+4.5

Expected marginfor Grizzlies

-2.5

Scenarios

Grizzlies win by 10+

16%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Thunder win by 10+

28%

Stat comparison Current season

OKCMEM

115.8

Points scored / game

115.2

106.9

Points allowed / game

117.3

44.0 %

Field goal %

45.3 %

30.9 %

3-point %

39.1 %

32.4

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

86.4 %

Free throw %

82.8 %

46.0

Rebounds / game

50.0

22.0

Assists / game

25.0

8.4

Steals / game

6.3

6.8

Blocks / game

6.3

13.6

Turnovers / game

15.5

Players to watch

Thunder

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #226.0pts / game

Alex CarusoG · #93.8assists

Isaiah HartensteinC · #559.6rebounds

Grizzlies

Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / game

Ty JeromeG · #26.5assists

Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

OKC

116-104W

96-84W

108-101W

125-114L

120-96

MEM

116-98W

123-103W

111-108W

123-112W

110-105

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

OKC 58% · MEM 42%

ESPN BPI

OKC 77% · MEM 23%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

OKC		MEM
4-1	Record	4-0
115.8	Points scored / game	115.2
106.9	Points allowed / game	117.3
+7.6	Adjusted margin / game	-1.8
L1	Current streak	W4
4-1	Last 10 games	4-0
1-1 road	Home / road record	1-0 home
64-18 (+11.1)	Last season	25-57 (-6.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Thunder

Jalen Williams GOut

Alex Caruso GOut

Thomas Sorber COut

Nikola Topic GOut

Cason Wallace GOut

Chet Holmgren CDay-To-Day

Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.