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Grizzlies vs Thunder prediction NBA · Friday, January 22

Fri, Jan 22 · 8:00 PM ETPaycom Center · KSBI, Thunder App, DAZN MEM

Memphis Grizzlies

4-0 · away

Projected score

109-116

Oklahoma City Thunder

4-1 · home

28% win MEMwin OKC 72%

FavoriteOKC

Projected margin7.1

Projected total226

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1) host the Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) on Friday, January 22 at 8:00 PM ET at Paycom Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Thunder a 72% chance to win and projects a 109-116 score (Grizzlies – Thunder), about 226 total points. This season, the Thunder are 3-0 at home and the Grizzlies are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Thunder and 4-0 for the Grizzlies (current streaks: Thunder L1, Grizzlies W4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 27% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jalen Williams (Thunder), Alex Caruso (Thunder), Thomas Sorber (Thunder), Nikola Topic (Thunder) and Cason Wallace (Thunder). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Thunder are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Thunder 116 – 109 Grizzlies, a margin of about 7.1 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso (and 3 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+7.6 vs -1.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Grizzlies need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (106.9 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Thunder

Team strength (adjusted point differential)OKC +7.6 / MEM -1.8 per game

+9.3

Home-court advantageThunder at home

+2.3

InjuriesOKC: 5 out, 1 questionable · MEM: 0 out, 0 questionable

-4.5

Expected marginfor Thunder

+7.1

Scenarios

Thunder win by 10+

41%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

27%

Grizzlies win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

MEMOKC

115.2

Points scored / game

115.8

117.3

Points allowed / game

106.9

45.3 %

Field goal %

44.0 %

39.1 %

3-point %

30.9 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

32.4

82.8 %

Free throw %

86.4 %

50.0

Rebounds / game

46.0

25.0

Assists / game

22.0

6.3

Steals / game

8.4

6.3

Blocks / game

6.8

15.5

Turnovers / game

13.6

Players to watch

Grizzlies

Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / game

Ty JeromeG · #26.5assists

Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5rebounds

Thunder

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #226.0pts / game

Alex CarusoG · #93.8assists

Isaiah HartensteinC · #559.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MEM

116-98W

123-103W

111-108W

123-112W

110-105

OKC

116-104W

96-84W

108-101W

125-114L

120-96

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MEM 28% · OKC 72%

ESPN BPI

MEM 18% · OKC 82%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MEM		OKC
4-0	Record	4-1
115.2	Points scored / game	115.8
117.3	Points allowed / game	106.9
-1.8	Adjusted margin / game	+7.6
W4	Current streak	L1
4-0	Last 10 games	4-1
3-0 road	Home / road record	3-0 home
25-57 (-6.0)	Last season	64-18 (+11.1)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Injury report Thunder

Jalen Williams GOut

Alex Caruso GOut

Thomas Sorber COut

Nikola Topic GOut

Cason Wallace GOut

Chet Holmgren CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.