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Heat vs Suns prediction NBA · Friday, March 19

Fri, Mar 19 · 10:30 PM ETMortgage Matchup Center · NBA TV, Suns Live, Arizona's Family 3TV

Miami Heat

1-4 · away

Projected score

115-116

Phoenix Suns

1-2 · home

48% win MIAwin PHX 52%

FavoritePHX

Projected margin0.5

Projected total231

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Phoenix Suns (1-2) host the Miami Heat (1-4) on Friday, March 19 at 10:30 PM ET at Mortgage Matchup Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Suns a 52% chance to win and projects a 115-116 score (Heat – Suns), about 231 total points. This season, the Suns are 1-0 at home and the Heat are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-2 for the Suns and 1-4 for the Heat (current streaks: Suns L1, Heat W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Mark Williams (Suns). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Suns 116 – 115 Heat, a margin of about 0.5 points in favor of the Suns and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Suns will be without Mark Williams. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Heat need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Heat's offense (118.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Suns' defense allows clearly fewer points (113.6 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Suns

Team strength (adjusted point differential)PHX -1.4 / MIA -0.6 per game

-0.9

Home-court advantageSuns at home

+2.3

InjuriesPHX: 1 out, 1 questionable · MIA: 0 out, 1 questionable

-0.9

Expected marginfor Suns

+0.5

Scenarios

Suns win by 10+

22%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Heat win by 10+

20%

Stat comparison Current season

MIAPHX

118.6

Points scored / game

111.9

119.2

Points allowed / game

113.6

45.3 %

Field goal %

45.6 %

31.7 %

3-point %

31.9 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

39.7

71.7 %

Free throw %

73.9 %

42.8

Rebounds / game

39.7

27.0

Assists / game

25.3

8.4

Steals / game

8.7

5.4

Blocks / game

5.3

14.2

Turnovers / game

14.0

Players to watch

Heat

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #727.6pts / game

Davion MitchellG · #27.6assists

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #711.2rebounds

Suns

Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / game

Devin BookerG · #155.3assists

Khaman MaluachC · #107.3rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIA

131-106L

128-111L

115-110L

113-109W

129-117

PHX

123-103L

119-116L

124-83W

131-122L

125-114

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIA 48% · PHX 52%

ESPN BPI

MIA 52% · PHX 48%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

MIA		PHX
1-4	Record	1-2
118.6	Points scored / game	111.9
119.2	Points allowed / game	113.6
-0.6	Adjusted margin / game	-1.4
W1	Current streak	L1
1-4	Last 10 games	1-2
1-1 road	Home / road record	1-0 home
43-39 (+2.3)	Last season	45-37 (+1.5)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Heat

Simone Fontecchio FDay-To-Day

Injury report Suns

Mark Williams COut

Oso Ighodaro FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.