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Suns vs Heat prediction NBA · Monday, March 8

Mon, Mar 8 · 7:30 PM ETKaseya Center · Suns Live, Arizona's Family 3TV

Phoenix Suns

1-2 · away

Projected score

113-118

Miami Heat

1-4 · home

37% win PHXwin MIA 63%

FavoriteMIA

Projected margin4.1

Projected total231

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Miami Heat (1-4) host the Phoenix Suns (1-2) on Monday, March 8 at 7:30 PM ET at Kaseya Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Heat a 63% chance to win and projects a 113-118 score (Suns – Heat), about 231 total points. This season, the Heat are 0-3 at home and the Suns are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Heat and 1-2 for the Suns (current streaks: Heat W1, Suns L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Mark Williams (Suns). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Heat, but the Suns have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Heat 118 – 113 Suns, a margin of about 4.1 points in favor of the Heat and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Suns will be without Mark Williams. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Suns need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Heat's offense (118.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Suns' defense allows clearly fewer points (113.6 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Heat

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIA -0.6 / PHX -1.4 per game

+0.9

Home-court advantageHeat at home

+2.3

InjuriesMIA: 0 out, 1 questionable · PHX: 1 out, 1 questionable

+0.9

Expected marginfor Heat

+4.1

Scenarios

Heat win by 10+

32%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Suns win by 10+

13%

Stat comparison Current season

PHXMIA

111.9

Points scored / game

118.6

113.6

Points allowed / game

119.2

45.6 %

Field goal %

45.3 %

31.9 %

3-point %

31.7 %

39.7

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

73.9 %

Free throw %

71.7 %

39.7

Rebounds / game

42.8

25.3

Assists / game

27.0

8.7

Steals / game

8.4

5.3

Blocks / game

5.4

14.0

Turnovers / game

14.2

Players to watch

Suns

Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / game

Devin BookerG · #155.3assists

Khaman MaluachC · #107.3rebounds

Heat

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #727.6pts / game

Davion MitchellG · #27.6assists

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #711.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

PHX

123-103L

119-116L

124-83W

131-122L

125-114

MIA

131-106L

128-111L

115-110L

113-109W

129-117

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

PHX 37% · MIA 63%

ESPN BPI

PHX 39% · MIA 61%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

PHX		MIA
1-2	Record	1-4
111.9	Points scored / game	118.6
113.6	Points allowed / game	119.2
-1.4	Adjusted margin / game	-0.6
L1	Current streak	W1
1-2	Last 10 games	1-4
0-2 road	Home / road record	0-3 home
45-37 (+1.5)	Last season	43-39 (+2.3)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Suns

Mark Williams COut

Oso Ighodaro FDay-To-Day

Injury report Heat

Simone Fontecchio FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.