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Hawks vs Lakers prediction NBA · Friday, March 19

Fri, Mar 19 · 10:00 PM ETcrypto.com Arena · Spectrum Sports Net, Spectrum Sports Net +
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks
2-3 · away
Projected score
115-117
Los Angeles Lakers
Los Angeles Lakers
4-1 · home
41% win ATLwin LAL 59%
FavoriteLAL
Projected margin2.7
Projected total232
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Los Angeles Lakers (4-1) host the Atlanta Hawks (2-3) on Friday, March 19 at 10:00 PM ET at crypto.com Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Lakers a 59% chance to win and projects a 115-117 score (Hawks – Lakers), about 232 total points. This season, the Lakers are 2-1 at home and the Hawks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Lakers and 2-3 for the Hawks (current streaks: Lakers W1, Hawks L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks), Henri Veesaar (Hawks), Cameron Carr (Lakers) and Adou Thiero (Lakers). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

The Lakers are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Lakers 117 – 115 Hawks, a margin of about 2.7 points in favor of the Lakers and a total around 232 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Lakers will be without Cameron Carr or Adou Thiero. The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar.

  • The Hawks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Lakers
Team strength (adjusted point differential)LAL +3.5 / ATL +2.7 per game
+0.8
Home-court advantageLakers at home
+2.3
InjuriesLAL: 2 out, 1 questionable · ATL: 2 out, 0 questionable
-0.3
Expected marginfor Lakers
+2.7

Scenarios

Lakers win by 10+
28%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
30%
Hawks win by 10+
15%

Stat comparison Current season

ATLLAL
119.0
Points scored / game
118.4
115.8
Points allowed / game
114.3
46.9 %
Field goal %
52.9 %
34.8 %
3-point %
39.2 %
41.4
3-pointers attempted / game
36.2
72.8 %
Free throw %
79.1 %
41.4
Rebounds / game
38.0
32.2
Assists / game
24.0
10.2
Steals / game
10.8
3.6
Blocks / game
5.8
14.0
Turnovers / game
16.6

Players to watch

Hawks
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game
Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists
Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds
Lakers
Luka DoncicG · #7736.0pts / game
Luka DoncicG · #778.2assists
Walker KesslerC · #148.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
ATL
WORL132-125WCHA128-81LHOU121-114LHOU120-110LMIA129-117
LAL
WGS127-105WLAC125-117WUTAH132-123LPOR136-129WLAC103-87

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Nov 9LALupcomingATLMar 19ATLthis gameLAL

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
ATL 41% · LAL 59%
ESPN BPI
ATL 41% · LAL 59%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

ATLLAL
2-3Record4-1
119.0Points scored / game118.4
115.8Points allowed / game114.3
+2.7Adjusted margin / game+3.5
L3Current streakW1
2-3Last 10 games4-1
2-1 roadHome / road record2-1 home
46-36 (+2.4)Last season53-29 (+1.8)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Atlanta Hawks Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut
Henri Veesaar COut

Los Angeles Lakers Injury report Lakers

Cameron Carr GOut
Adou Thiero FOut
Ziaire Williams FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.