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Lakers vs Hawks prediction NBA · Monday, November 9

Mon, Nov 9 · 7:00 PM ETState Farm Arena · Spectrum Sports Net, Spectrum Sports Net +

Los Angeles Lakers

4-1 · away

Projected score

113-117

Atlanta Hawks

2-3 · home

38% win LALwin ATL 62%

FavoriteATL

Projected margin3.8

Projected total230

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Atlanta Hawks (2-3) host the Los Angeles Lakers (4-1) on Monday, November 9 at 7:00 PM ET at State Farm Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hawks a 62% chance to win and projects a 113-117 score (Lakers – Hawks), about 230 total points. This season, the Hawks are 0-2 at home and the Lakers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Hawks and 4-1 for the Lakers (current streaks: Hawks L3, Lakers W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Lakers played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Cameron Carr (Lakers), Adou Thiero (Lakers), Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks) and Henri Veesaar (Hawks). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Hawks are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Hawks 117 – 113 Lakers, a margin of about 3.8 points in favor of the Hawks and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Lakers played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar. The Lakers will be without Cameron Carr or Adou Thiero.

The Lakers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Hawks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)ATL +2.7 / LAL +3.5 per game

-0.8

Home-court advantageHawks at home

+2.3

Back-to-backLakers played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesATL: 2 out, 0 questionable · LAL: 2 out, 2 questionable

+0.7

Expected marginfor Hawks

+3.8

Scenarios

Hawks win by 10+

31%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Lakers win by 10+

13%

Stat comparison Current season

LALATL

118.4

Points scored / game

119.0

114.3

Points allowed / game

115.8

52.9 %

Field goal %

46.9 %

39.2 %

3-point %

34.8 %

36.2

3-pointers attempted / game

41.4

79.1 %

Free throw %

72.8 %

38.0

Rebounds / game

41.4

24.0

Assists / game

32.2

10.8

Steals / game

10.2

5.8

Blocks / game

3.6

16.6

Turnovers / game

14.0

Players to watch

Lakers

Luka DoncicG · #7736.0pts / game

Luka DoncicG · #778.2assists

Walker KesslerC · #148.2rebounds

Hawks

Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game

Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists

Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

LAL

127-105W

125-117W

132-123L

136-129W

103-87

ATL

132-125W

128-81L

121-114L

120-110L

129-117

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

LAL 38% · ATL 62%

ESPN BPI

LAL 45% · ATL 55%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

LAL		ATL
4-1	Record	2-3
118.4	Points scored / game	119.0
114.3	Points allowed / game	115.8
+3.5	Adjusted margin / game	+2.7
W1	Current streak	L3
4-1	Last 10 games	2-3
2-0 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
53-29 (+1.8)	Last season	46-36 (+2.4)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Lakers

Cameron Carr GOut

Adou Thiero FOut

Ziaire Williams FDay-To-Day

Luka Doncic GDay-To-Day

Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut

Henri Veesaar COut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.