Rockets vs Pelicans prediction NBA · Friday, March 19
At a glance
The New Orleans Pelicans (0-4) host the Houston Rockets (5-0) on Friday, March 19 at 8:00 PM ET at Smoothie King Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Rockets a 78% chance to win and projects a 119-109 score (Rockets – Pelicans), about 228 total points. This season, the Pelicans are 0-2 at home and the Rockets are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Pelicans and 5-0 for the Rockets (current streaks: Pelicans L4, Rockets W5). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 23% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Pelicans played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Reed Sheppard (Rockets), Marcus Smart (Rockets), Steven Adams (Rockets), Dejounte Murray (Pelicans), Jordan Poole (Pelicans) and Yves Missi (Pelicans). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
On paper, the Rockets dominate this matchup. The model projects Pelicans 109 – 119 Rockets, a margin of about 9.7 points in favor of the Rockets and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pelicans played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Pelicans will be without Dejounte Murray or Jordan Poole (and 1 other). The Rockets will be without Reed Sheppard or Marcus Smart (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (-4.1 vs +6.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Pelicans need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Rockets' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.7 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
HOUNO
Players to watch
Rockets
Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / gameAlperen SengunC · #287.0assistsAlperen SengunC · #289.0reboundsPelicans
Zion WilliamsonF · #121.8pts / game
Dejounte MurrayG · #56.0assists
Derik QueenC · #229.2reboundsRecent form
HOU
128-110W
114-110W
121-114W120-110W
132-100NO
107-106L
123-120L
120-119L
141-135 OTL104-91Head-to-head
4 meetings scheduled this season.
NO
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| HOU | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 0-4 |
| 117.5 | Points scored / game | 115.7 |
| 109.7 | Points allowed / game | 120.5 |
| +6.7 | Adjusted margin / game | -4.1 |
| W5 | Current streak | L4 |
| 5-0 | Last 10 games | 0-4 |
| 3-0 road | Home / road record | 0-2 home |
| 52-30 (+5.2) | Last season | 26-56 (-4.5) |
| No | Played yesterday | Yes |
Injury report Rockets
Injury report Pelicans
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.