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Pelicans vs Rockets prediction NBA · Wednesday, March 3

Wed, Mar 3 · 8:30 PM ETToyota Center (Houston) · GCSEN, Pelicans.com
New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans Pelicans
0-4 · away
Projected score
108-121
Houston Rockets
Houston Rockets
5-0 · home
15% win NOwin HOU 85%
FavoriteHOU
Projected margin12.7
Projected total229
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Houston Rockets (5-0) host the New Orleans Pelicans (0-4) on Wednesday, March 3 at 8:30 PM ET at Toyota Center (Houston) in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Rockets a 85% chance to win and projects a 108-121 score (Pelicans – Rockets), about 229 total points. This season, the Rockets are 2-0 at home and the Pelicans are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 5-0 for the Rockets and 0-4 for the Pelicans (current streaks: Rockets W5, Pelicans L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 19% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Dejounte Murray (Pelicans), Jordan Poole (Pelicans), Yves Missi (Pelicans), Reed Sheppard (Rockets), Marcus Smart (Rockets) and Steven Adams (Rockets). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Rockets dominate this matchup. The model projects Rockets 121 – 108 Pelicans, a margin of about 12.7 points in favor of the Rockets and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Rockets will be without Reed Sheppard or Marcus Smart (and 1 other). The Pelicans will be without Dejounte Murray or Jordan Poole (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

  • The overall strength gap (+6.7 vs -4.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Pelicans need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Rockets' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.7 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Rockets
Team strength (adjusted point differential)HOU +6.7 / NO -4.1 per game
+10.8
Home-court advantageRockets at home
+2.3
InjuriesHOU: 3 out, 1 questionable · NO: 3 out, 0 questionable
-0.4
Expected marginfor Rockets
+12.7

Scenarios

Rockets win by 10+
59%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
19%
Pelicans win by 10+
3%

Stat comparison Current season

NOHOU
115.7
Points scored / game
117.5
120.5
Points allowed / game
109.7
46.5 %
Field goal %
51.7 %
29.0 %
3-point %
40.4 %
31.0
3-pointers attempted / game
32.2
83.6 %
Free throw %
84.7 %
44.3
Rebounds / game
44.8
23.5
Assists / game
28.2
12.3
Steals / game
10.2
4.8
Blocks / game
6.0
16.5
Turnovers / game
15.8

Players to watch

Pelicans
Zion WilliamsonF · #121.8pts / game
Dejounte MurrayG · #56.0assists
Derik QueenC · #229.2rebounds
Rockets
Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / game
Alperen SengunC · #287.0assists
Alperen SengunC · #289.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
NO
WWSH107-106LIND123-120LUTAH120-119LDEN141-135 OTLDEN104-91
HOU
WDAL128-110WSA114-110WATL121-114WATL120-110WMIL132-100

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Jan 27NOupcomingHOUFeb 12HOUupcomingNOMar 3NOthis gameHOUMar 19HOUupcomingNO

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
NO 15% · HOU 85%
ESPN BPI
NO 18% · HOU 82%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

NOHOU
0-4Record5-0
115.7Points scored / game117.5
120.5Points allowed / game109.7
-4.1Adjusted margin / game+6.7
L4Current streakW5
0-4Last 10 games5-0
0-2 roadHome / road record2-0 home
26-56 (-4.5)Last season52-30 (+5.2)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

New Orleans Pelicans Injury report Pelicans

Dejounte Murray GOut
Jordan Poole GOut
Yves Missi COut

Houston Rockets Injury report Rockets

Reed Sheppard GOut
Marcus Smart GOut
Steven Adams COut
Alperen Sengun CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.