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Cavaliers vs Nuggets prediction NBA · Thursday, March 18

Thu, Mar 18 · 9:00 PM ETBall Arena · DAZN CLE

Cleveland Cavaliers

3-2 · away

Projected score

118-116

Denver Nuggets

2-2 · home

54% win CLEwin DEN 46%

FavoriteCLE

Projected margin1.4

Projected total234

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Denver Nuggets (2-2) host the Cleveland Cavaliers (3-1) on Thursday, March 18 at 9:00 PM ET at Ball Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Cavaliers a 54% chance to win and projects a 118-116 score (Cavaliers – Nuggets), about 234 total points. This season, the Nuggets are 1-1 at home and the Cavaliers are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-2 for the Nuggets and 3-1 for the Cavaliers (current streaks: Nuggets W1, Cavaliers W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Alpha Diallo (Nuggets), Cameron Johnson (Nuggets), Spencer Jones (Nuggets) and Julian Strawther (Nuggets). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Nuggets 116 – 118 Cavaliers, a margin of about 1.4 points in favor of the Cavaliers and a total around 234 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Nuggets will be without Alpha Diallo or Cameron Johnson (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Nuggets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Nuggets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DEN +2.6 / CLE +3.0 per game

-0.4

Home-court advantageNuggets at home

+2.3

InjuriesDEN: 4 out, 0 questionable · CLE: 0 out, 1 questionable

-3.3

Expected marginfor Nuggets

-1.4

Scenarios

Nuggets win by 10+

18%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Cavaliers win by 10+

25%

Stat comparison Current season

CLEDEN

119.6

Points scored / game

119.2

116.0

Points allowed / game

116.2

46.8 %

Field goal %

45.8 %

36.7 %

3-point %

32.8 %

37.5

3-pointers attempted / game

34.3

79.3 %

Free throw %

79.6 %

47.0

Rebounds / game

44.5

26.3

Assists / game

26.0

8.8

Steals / game

10.0

7.5

Blocks / game

4.8

17.3

Turnovers / game

15.3

Players to watch

Cavaliers

Donovan MitchellG · #4524.8pts / game

James HardenG · #16.8assists

Evan MobleyC · #410.0rebounds

Nuggets

Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game

Nikola JokicC · #159.0assists

Nikola JokicC · #1510.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

CLE

114-106W

125-121W

127-125 OTW WSH

121-111L

114-111

DEN

121-106L

96-84W

141-135 OTL

134-114W

104-91

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

CLE 54% · DEN 46%

ESPN BPI

CLE 47% · DEN 53%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

CLE		DEN
3-1	Record	2-2
119.6	Points scored / game	119.2
116.0	Points allowed / game	116.2
+3.0	Adjusted margin / game	+2.6
W3	Current streak	W1
3-1	Last 10 games	2-2
0-1 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
52-30 (+4.1)	Last season	54-28 (+5.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Cavaliers

Meleek Thomas GDay-To-Day

Injury report Nuggets

Alpha Diallo FOut

Cameron Johnson FOut

Spencer Jones FOut

Julian Strawther GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.