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Nuggets vs Cavaliers prediction NBA · Saturday, January 9

Sat, Jan 9 · 5:00 PM ETRocket Arena · DAZN CLE

Denver Nuggets

2-2 · away

Projected score

114-120

Cleveland Cavaliers

3-2 · home

32% win DENwin CLE 68%

FavoriteCLE

Projected margin6.0

Projected total234

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Cleveland Cavaliers (3-1) host the Denver Nuggets (2-2) on Saturday, January 9 at 5:00 PM ET at Rocket Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Cavaliers a 68% chance to win and projects a 114-120 score (Nuggets – Cavaliers), about 234 total points. This season, the Cavaliers are 3-0 at home and the Nuggets are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Cavaliers and 2-2 for the Nuggets (current streaks: Cavaliers W3, Nuggets W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Alpha Diallo (Nuggets), Cameron Johnson (Nuggets), Spencer Jones (Nuggets) and Julian Strawther (Nuggets). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Cavaliers, but the Nuggets have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Cavaliers 120 – 114 Nuggets, a margin of about 6.0 points in favor of the Cavaliers and a total around 234 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Nuggets will be without Alpha Diallo or Cameron Johnson (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Nuggets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Cavaliers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)CLE +3.0 / DEN +2.6 per game

+0.4

Home-court advantageCavaliers at home

+2.3

InjuriesCLE: 0 out, 1 questionable · DEN: 4 out, 0 questionable

+3.3

Expected marginfor Cavaliers

+6.0

Scenarios

Cavaliers win by 10+

37%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

28%

Nuggets win by 10+

10%

Stat comparison Current season

DENCLE

119.2

Points scored / game

119.6

116.2

Points allowed / game

116.0

45.8 %

Field goal %

46.8 %

32.8 %

3-point %

36.7 %

34.3

3-pointers attempted / game

37.5

79.6 %

Free throw %

79.3 %

44.5

Rebounds / game

47.0

26.0

Assists / game

26.3

10.0

Steals / game

8.8

4.8

Blocks / game

7.5

15.3

Turnovers / game

17.3

Players to watch

Nuggets

Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game

Nikola JokicC · #159.0assists

Nikola JokicC · #1510.5rebounds

Cavaliers

Donovan MitchellG · #4524.8pts / game

James HardenG · #16.8assists

Evan MobleyC · #410.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DEN

121-106L

96-84W

141-135 OTL

134-114W

104-91

CLE

114-106W

125-121W

127-125 OTW WSH

121-111L

114-111

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DEN 32% · CLE 68%

ESPN BPI

DEN 43% · CLE 57%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DEN		CLE
2-2	Record	3-1
119.2	Points scored / game	119.6
116.2	Points allowed / game	116.0
+2.6	Adjusted margin / game	+3.0
W1	Current streak	W3
2-2	Last 10 games	3-1
1-1 road	Home / road record	3-0 home
54-28 (+5.2)	Last season	52-30 (+4.1)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Nuggets

Alpha Diallo FOut

Cameron Johnson FOut

Spencer Jones FOut

Julian Strawther GOut

Injury report Cavaliers

Meleek Thomas GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.