Hornets vs Pelicans prediction NBA · Thursday, March 18
At a glance
The New Orleans Pelicans (0-4) host the Charlotte Hornets (3-2) on Thursday, March 18 at 8:00 PM ET at Smoothie King Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hornets a 55% chance to win and projects a 114-112 score (Hornets – Pelicans), about 226 total points. This season, the Pelicans are 0-2 at home and the Hornets are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Pelicans and 3-2 for the Hornets (current streaks: Pelicans L4, Hornets L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kon Knueppel (Hornets), Coby White (Hornets), Grant Williams (Hornets), Kylan Boswell (Hornets), Dejounte Murray (Pelicans) and Jordan Poole (Pelicans)…. Prediction confidence: low.
The analysis Model
Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Pelicans 112 – 114 Hornets, a margin of about 1.6 points in favor of the Hornets and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pelicans will be without Dejounte Murray or Jordan Poole (and 1 other). The Hornets will be without Kon Knueppel or Coby White (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (-4.1 vs +1.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Pelicans need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Pelicans' offense (115.7 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Hornets' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.3 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
CHANO
Players to watch
Hornets
Brandon MillerF · #2425.6pts / game
Dennis SchroderG · #174.8assists
Moussa DiabateF · #149.4reboundsPelicans
Zion WilliamsonF · #121.8pts / game
Dejounte MurrayG · #56.0assists
Derik QueenC · #229.2reboundsRecent form
CHA
110-103L
128-81W
115-110W
110-103L
97-89NO107-106L
123-120L
120-119L
141-135 OTL104-91
NO
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| CHA | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 0-4 |
| 111.6 | Points scored / game | 115.7 |
| 110.3 | Points allowed / game | 120.5 |
| +1.1 | Adjusted margin / game | -4.1 |
| L1 | Current streak | L4 |
| 3-2 | Last 10 games | 0-4 |
| 1-1 road | Home / road record | 0-2 home |
| 44-38 (+4.8) | Last season | 26-56 (-4.5) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Hornets
Injury report Pelicans
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.