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Hawks vs Jazz prediction NBA · Wednesday, March 17

Wed, Mar 17 · 9:00 PM ETDelta Center · KJZZ-TV, Jazz+
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks
2-3 · away
Projected score
122-113
Utah Jazz
Utah Jazz
1-4 · home
76% win ATLwin UTAH 24%
FavoriteATL
Projected margin8.7
Projected total236
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Utah Jazz (1-4) host the Atlanta Hawks (2-3) on Wednesday, March 17 at 9:00 PM ET at Delta Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hawks a 76% chance to win and projects a 122-113 score (Hawks – Jazz), about 236 total points. This season, the Jazz are 1-3 at home and the Hawks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Jazz and 2-3 for the Hawks (current streaks: Jazz L3, Hawks L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 25% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks), Henri Veesaar (Hawks), Jaren Jackson Jr. (Jazz), Trey Alexander (Jazz) and Jusuf Nurkic (Jazz). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Hawks dominate this matchup. The model projects Jazz 113 – 122 Hawks, a margin of about 8.7 points in favor of the Hawks and a total around 236 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Jazz will be without Jaren Jackson Jr. or Trey Alexander (and 1 other). The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar.

  • The overall strength gap (-7.0 vs +2.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Jazz need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Hawks' defense allows clearly fewer points (115.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Jazz
Team strength (adjusted point differential)UTAH -7.0 / ATL +2.7 per game
-9.7
Home-court advantageJazz at home
+2.3
InjuriesUTAH: 3 out, 1 questionable · ATL: 2 out, 0 questionable
-1.3
Expected marginfor Jazz
-8.7

Scenarios

Jazz win by 10+
7%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
25%
Hawks win by 10+
46%

Stat comparison Current season

ATLUTAH
119.0
Points scored / game
116.1
115.8
Points allowed / game
124.3
46.9 %
Field goal %
45.4 %
34.8 %
3-point %
33.9 %
41.4
3-pointers attempted / game
34.8
72.8 %
Free throw %
76.6 %
41.4
Rebounds / game
46.8
32.2
Assists / game
26.8
10.2
Steals / game
5.0
3.6
Blocks / game
6.4
14.0
Turnovers / game
17.0

Players to watch

Hawks
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game
Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists
Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds
Jazz
Keyonte GeorgeG · #324.4pts / game
Keyonte GeorgeG · #36.8assists
Ace BaileyG · #198.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
ATL
WORL132-125WCHA128-81LHOU121-114LHOU120-110LMIA129-117
UTAH
LMEM123-103WNO120-119LLAL132-123LMEM110-105LSA117-111 OT

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Mar 17ATLthis gameUTAHMar 27UTAHupcomingATL

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
ATL 76% · UTAH 24%
ESPN BPI
ATL 57% · UTAH 43%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

ATLUTAH
2-3Record1-4
119.0Points scored / game116.1
115.8Points allowed / game124.3
+2.7Adjusted margin / game-7.0
L3Current streakL3
2-3Last 10 games1-4
2-1 roadHome / road record1-3 home
46-36 (+2.4)Last season22-60 (-8.4)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Atlanta Hawks Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut
Henri Veesaar COut

Utah Jazz Injury report Jazz

Jaren Jackson Jr. FOut
Trey Alexander GOut
Jusuf Nurkic COut
Lauri Markkanen FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.