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Kings vs Knicks prediction NBA · Wednesday, March 17

Wed, Mar 17 · 7:30 PM ETMadison Square Garden

Sacramento Kings

0-4 · away

Projected score

103-122

New York Knicks

2-3 · home

6% win SACwin NY 94%

FavoriteNY

Projected margin19.0

Projected total225

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The New York Knicks (2-3) host the Sacramento Kings (0-4) on Wednesday, March 17 at 7:30 PM ET at Madison Square Garden in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Knicks a 94% chance to win and projects a 103-122 score (Kings – Knicks), about 225 total points. This season, the Knicks are 1-2 at home and the Kings are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Knicks and 0-4 for the Kings (current streaks: Knicks W2, Kings L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 10% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Knicks and the Kings played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Dylan Cardwell (Kings), Maxime Raynaud (Kings), Keegan Murray (Kings), Ben Simmons (Kings) and Jose Alvarado (Knicks). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Knicks start with a clear edge. The model projects Knicks 122 – 103 Kings, a margin of about 19.0 points in favor of the Knicks and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Knicks and the Kings played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Knicks will be without Jose Alvarado. The Kings will be without Dylan Cardwell or Maxime Raynaud (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+3.8 vs -10.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Kings need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Knicks' offense (114.5 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Knicks' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.0 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Knicks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)NY +3.8 / SAC -10.1 per game

+14.0

Home-court advantageKnicks at home

+2.3

InjuriesNY: 1 out, 0 questionable · SAC: 4 out, 0 questionable

+2.7

Expected marginfor Knicks

+19.0

Scenarios

Knicks win by 10+

76%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

10%

Kings win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

SACNY

110.2

Points scored / game

114.5

122.1

Points allowed / game

110.0

44.5 %

Field goal %

42.2 %

30.0 %

3-point %

35.9 %

32.5

3-pointers attempted / game

39.0

73.1 %

Free throw %

75.8 %

41.5

Rebounds / game

48.2

22.8

Assists / game

26.8

6.8

Steals / game

7.2

2.5

Blocks / game

4.4

14.3

Turnovers / game

14.8

Players to watch

Kings

Zach LaVineG · #827.2pts / game

Domantas SabonisF · #117.2assists

Domantas SabonisF · #1116.5rebounds

Knicks

Jalen BrunsonG · #1125.8pts / game

Tyler KolekG · #137.0assists

Karl-Anthony TownsC · #3213.8rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

SAC

L126-97L121-96L128-120L123-112L130-103

106-100L

107-103L

111-102W

111-97W

133-127

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

SAC 6% · NY 94%

ESPN BPI

SAC 11% · NY 89%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

SAC		NY
0-4	Record	2-3
110.2	Points scored / game	114.5
122.1	Points allowed / game	110.0
-10.1	Adjusted margin / game	+3.8
L4	Current streak	W2
0-4	Last 10 games	2-3
0-2 road	Home / road record	1-2 home
22-60 (-10.0)	Last season	53-29 (+6.3)
Yes	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Kings

Dylan Cardwell COut

Maxime Raynaud COut

Keegan Murray FOut

Ben Simmons GOut

Injury report Knicks

Jose Alvarado GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.