Hornets vs Thunder prediction NBA · Tuesday, March 16
At a glance
The Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1) host the Charlotte Hornets (3-2) on Tuesday, March 16 at 8:00 PM ET at Paycom Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Thunder a 75% chance to win and projects a 105-114 score (Hornets – Thunder), about 219 total points. This season, the Thunder are 3-0 at home and the Hornets are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Thunder and 3-2 for the Hornets (current streaks: Thunder L1, Hornets L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 25% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kon Knueppel (Hornets), Coby White (Hornets), Grant Williams (Hornets), Kylan Boswell (Hornets), Jalen Williams (Thunder) and Alex Caruso (Thunder)…. Prediction confidence: high.
The analysis Model
The Thunder start with a clear edge. The model projects Thunder 114 – 105 Hornets, a margin of about 8.2 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 219 points. Expect a tighter, lower-scoring game. The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso (and 3 others). The Hornets will be without Kon Knueppel or Coby White (and 2 others).
- The overall strength gap (+7.6 vs +1.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Hornets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Thunder's offense (115.8 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (106.9 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
CHAOKC
Players to watch
Hornets
Brandon MillerF · #2425.6pts / game
Dennis SchroderG · #174.8assists
Moussa DiabateF · #149.4reboundsThunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #226.0pts / game
Alex CarusoG · #93.8assists
Isaiah HartensteinC · #559.6reboundsRecent form
CHA
110-103L
128-81W
115-110W
110-103L
97-89OKC
116-104W
96-84W
108-101W
125-114L
120-96
OKC
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| CHA | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| 111.6 | Points scored / game | 115.8 |
| 110.3 | Points allowed / game | 106.9 |
| +1.1 | Adjusted margin / game | +7.6 |
| L1 | Current streak | L1 |
| 3-2 | Last 10 games | 4-1 |
| 1-1 road | Home / road record | 3-0 home |
| 44-38 (+4.8) | Last season | 64-18 (+11.1) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Hornets
Injury report Thunder
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.