Thunder vs Hornets prediction NBA · Friday, December 18
At a glance
The Charlotte Hornets (3-2) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1) on Friday, December 18 at 7:00 PM ET at Spectrum Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Thunder a 61% chance to win and projects a 111-108 score (Thunder – Hornets), about 219 total points. This season, the Hornets are 2-1 at home and the Thunder are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Hornets and 4-1 for the Thunder (current streaks: Hornets L1, Thunder L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jalen Williams (Thunder), Alex Caruso (Thunder), Thomas Sorber (Thunder), Nikola Topic (Thunder), Cason Wallace (Thunder) and Kon Knueppel (Hornets)…. Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
Slight edge to the Thunder, but the Hornets have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Hornets 108 – 111 Thunder, a margin of about 3.6 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 219 points. Expect a tighter, lower-scoring game. The Hornets will be without Kon Knueppel or Coby White (and 2 others). The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso (and 3 others).
- The overall strength gap (+1.1 vs +7.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Hornets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Thunder's offense (115.8 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (106.9 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
OKCCHA
Players to watch
Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #226.0pts / game
Alex CarusoG · #93.8assists
Isaiah HartensteinC · #559.6reboundsHornets
Brandon MillerF · #2425.6pts / game
Dennis SchroderG · #174.8assists
Moussa DiabateF · #149.4reboundsRecent form
OKC
116-104W
96-84W
108-101W
125-114L
120-96CHA
110-103L
128-81W
115-110W
110-103L
97-89
OKC
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| OKC | CHA | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| 115.8 | Points scored / game | 111.6 |
| 106.9 | Points allowed / game | 110.3 |
| +7.6 | Adjusted margin / game | +1.1 |
| L1 | Current streak | L1 |
| 4-1 | Last 10 games | 3-2 |
| 1-1 road | Home / road record | 2-1 home |
| 64-18 (+11.1) | Last season | 44-38 (+4.8) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Thunder
Injury report Hornets
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.