Timberwolves vs Pelicans prediction NBA · Tuesday, March 16
At a glance
The New Orleans Pelicans (0-4) host the Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2) on Tuesday, March 16 at 8:00 PM ET at Smoothie King Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Timberwolves a 74% chance to win and projects a 120-112 score (Timberwolves – Pelicans), about 232 total points. This season, the Pelicans are 0-2 at home and the Timberwolves are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Pelicans and 3-2 for the Timberwolves (current streaks: Pelicans L4, Timberwolves L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 26% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves), Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves), Dejounte Murray (Pelicans), Jordan Poole (Pelicans) and Yves Missi (Pelicans). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
On paper, the Timberwolves dominate this matchup. The model projects Pelicans 112 – 120 Timberwolves, a margin of about 7.9 points in favor of the Timberwolves and a total around 232 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pelicans will be without Dejounte Murray or Jordan Poole (and 1 other). The Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (-4.1 vs +5.2 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Pelicans need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Timberwolves' offense (118.7 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Timberwolves' defense allows clearly fewer points (112.6 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
MINNO
Players to watch
Timberwolves
Anthony EdwardsG · #533.2pts / game
LaMelo BallG · #16.6assists
Rudy GobertC · #2712.2reboundsPelicans
Zion WilliamsonF · #121.8pts / game
Dejounte MurrayG · #56.0assists
Derik QueenC · #229.2reboundsRecent form
MIN
131-106W
115-93W
117-94L
127-125 OTL
119-114NO
107-106L
123-120L
120-119L
141-135 OTL104-91Head-to-head
3 meetings scheduled this season.
MIN
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| MIN | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 0-4 |
| 118.7 | Points scored / game | 115.7 |
| 112.6 | Points allowed / game | 120.5 |
| +5.2 | Adjusted margin / game | -4.1 |
| L2 | Current streak | L4 |
| 3-2 | Last 10 games | 0-4 |
| 2-1 road | Home / road record | 0-2 home |
| 49-33 (+3.4) | Last season | 26-56 (-4.5) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Timberwolves
Injury report Pelicans
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.