Pelicans vs Timberwolves prediction NBA · Monday, March 8
At a glance
The Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2) host the New Orleans Pelicans (0-4) on Monday, March 8 at 8:00 PM ET at Target Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Timberwolves a 81% chance to win and projects a 110-121 score (Pelicans – Timberwolves), about 230 total points. This season, the Timberwolves are 1-1 at home and the Pelicans are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Timberwolves and 0-4 for the Pelicans (current streaks: Timberwolves L2, Pelicans L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 22% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Timberwolves played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Dejounte Murray (Pelicans), Jordan Poole (Pelicans), Yves Missi (Pelicans), Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves) and Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
On paper, the Timberwolves dominate this matchup. The model projects Timberwolves 121 – 110 Pelicans, a margin of about 10.9 points in favor of the Timberwolves and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Timberwolves played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo. The Pelicans will be without Dejounte Murray or Jordan Poole (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (+5.2 vs -4.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Pelicans need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Timberwolves' offense (118.7 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Timberwolves' defense allows clearly fewer points (112.6 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
NOMIN
Players to watch
Pelicans
Zion WilliamsonF · #121.8pts / game
Dejounte MurrayG · #56.0assists
Derik QueenC · #229.2reboundsTimberwolves
Anthony EdwardsG · #533.2pts / game
LaMelo BallG · #16.6assists
Rudy GobertC · #2712.2reboundsRecent form
NO
107-106L
123-120L
120-119L
141-135 OTL104-91MIN
131-106W
115-93W
117-94L
127-125 OTL
119-114Head-to-head
3 meetings scheduled this season.
MIN
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| NO | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | Record | 3-2 |
| 115.7 | Points scored / game | 118.7 |
| 120.5 | Points allowed / game | 112.6 |
| -4.1 | Adjusted margin / game | +5.2 |
| L4 | Current streak | L2 |
| 0-4 | Last 10 games | 3-2 |
| 0-2 road | Home / road record | 1-1 home |
| 26-56 (-4.5) | Last season | 49-33 (+3.4) |
| No | Played yesterday | Yes |
Injury report Pelicans
Injury report Timberwolves
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.