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Kings vs Celtics prediction NBA · Tuesday, March 16

Tue, Mar 16 · 7:30 PM ETTD Garden

Sacramento Kings

0-4 · away

Projected score

102-124

Boston Celtics

3-1 · home

4% win SACwin BOS 96%

FavoriteBOS

Projected margin21.8

Projected total227

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Boston Celtics (3-1) host the Sacramento Kings (0-4) on Tuesday, March 16 at 7:30 PM ET at TD Garden in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Celtics a 96% chance to win and projects a 102-124 score (Kings – Celtics), about 227 total points. This season, the Celtics are 3-0 at home and the Kings are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Celtics and 0-4 for the Kings (current streaks: Celtics W3, Kings L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 7% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Dylan Cardwell (Kings), Maxime Raynaud (Kings), Keegan Murray (Kings), Ben Simmons (Kings) and Devin Carter (Celtics). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Celtics start with a clear edge. The model projects Celtics 124 – 102 Kings, a margin of about 21.8 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Celtics will be without Devin Carter. The Kings will be without Dylan Cardwell or Maxime Raynaud (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+6.6 vs -10.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Kings need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Celtics' offense (116.1 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Celtics' defense allows clearly fewer points (108.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Celtics

Team strength (adjusted point differential)BOS +6.6 / SAC -10.1 per game

+16.8

Home-court advantageCeltics at home

+2.3

InjuriesBOS: 1 out, 0 questionable · SAC: 4 out, 0 questionable

+2.7

Expected marginfor Celtics

+21.8

Scenarios

Celtics win by 10+

83%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

Kings win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

SACBOS

110.2

Points scored / game

116.1

122.1

Points allowed / game

108.3

44.5 %

Field goal %

46.5 %

30.0 %

3-point %

38.6 %

32.5

3-pointers attempted / game

41.5

73.1 %

Free throw %

76.0 %

41.5

Rebounds / game

44.3

22.8

Assists / game

27.8

6.8

Steals / game

9.0

2.5

Blocks / game

3.8

14.3

Turnovers / game

15.5

Players to watch

Kings

Zach LaVineG · #827.2pts / game

Domantas SabonisF · #117.2assists

Domantas SabonisF · #1116.5rebounds

Celtics

Jayson TatumF · #028.0pts / game

Jayson TatumF · #08.0assists

Jayson TatumF · #06.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

SAC

L126-97L121-96L128-120L123-112L130-103

BOS

125-120 OTL DET

121-113W

107-103W

134-99W

125-124 OT

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

SAC 4% · BOS 96%

ESPN BPI

SAC 10% · BOS 90%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

SAC		BOS
0-4	Record	3-1
110.2	Points scored / game	116.1
122.1	Points allowed / game	108.3
-10.1	Adjusted margin / game	+6.6
L4	Current streak	W3
0-4	Last 10 games	3-1
0-2 road	Home / road record	3-0 home
22-60 (-10.0)	Last season	56-26 (+7.7)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Kings

Dylan Cardwell COut

Maxime Raynaud COut

Keegan Murray FOut

Ben Simmons GOut

Injury report Celtics

Devin Carter GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.