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Celtics vs Kings prediction NBA · Saturday, November 21

Sat, Nov 21 · 10:00 PM ETGolden 1 Center · NBA TV

Boston Celtics

3-1 · away

Projected score

122-103

Sacramento Kings

0-4 · home

93% win BOSwin SAC 7%

FavoriteBOS

Projected margin18.8

Projected total225

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Sacramento Kings (0-4) host the Boston Celtics (3-1) on Saturday, November 21 at 10:00 PM ET at Golden 1 Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Celtics a 93% chance to win and projects a 122-103 score (Celtics – Kings), about 225 total points. This season, the Kings are 0-2 at home and the Celtics are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Kings and 3-1 for the Celtics (current streaks: Kings L4, Celtics W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 11% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Kings played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Devin Carter (Celtics), Dylan Cardwell (Kings), Maxime Raynaud (Kings), Keegan Murray (Kings) and Ben Simmons (Kings). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Celtics start with a clear edge. The model projects Kings 103 – 122 Celtics, a margin of about 18.8 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Kings played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Kings will be without Dylan Cardwell or Maxime Raynaud (and 2 others). The Celtics will be without Devin Carter. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-10.1 vs +6.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Kings need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Celtics' offense (116.1 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Celtics' defense allows clearly fewer points (108.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Kings

Team strength (adjusted point differential)SAC -10.1 / BOS +6.6 per game

-16.8

Home-court advantageKings at home

+2.3

Back-to-backKings played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesSAC: 4 out, 0 questionable · BOS: 1 out, 0 questionable

-2.7

Expected marginfor Kings

-18.8

Scenarios

Kings win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

11%

Celtics win by 10+

76%

Stat comparison Current season

BOSSAC

116.1

Points scored / game

110.2

108.3

Points allowed / game

122.1

46.5 %

Field goal %

44.5 %

38.6 %

3-point %

30.0 %

41.5

3-pointers attempted / game

32.5

76.0 %

Free throw %

73.1 %

44.3

Rebounds / game

41.5

27.8

Assists / game

22.8

9.0

Steals / game

6.8

3.8

Blocks / game

2.5

15.5

Turnovers / game

14.3

Players to watch

Celtics

Jayson TatumF · #028.0pts / game

Jayson TatumF · #08.0assists

Jayson TatumF · #06.2rebounds

Kings

Zach LaVineG · #827.2pts / game

Domantas SabonisF · #117.2assists

Domantas SabonisF · #1116.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

BOS

125-120 OTL DET

121-113W

107-103W

134-99W

125-124 OT

SAC

L126-97L121-96L128-120L123-112L130-103

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

BOS 93% · SAC 7%

ESPN BPI

BOS 88% · SAC 12%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

BOS		SAC
3-1	Record	0-4
116.1	Points scored / game	110.2
108.3	Points allowed / game	122.1
+6.6	Adjusted margin / game	-10.1
W3	Current streak	L4
3-1	Last 10 games	0-4
0-1 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
56-26 (+7.7)	Last season	22-60 (-10.0)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Celtics

Devin Carter GOut

Injury report Kings

Dylan Cardwell COut

Maxime Raynaud COut

Keegan Murray FOut

Ben Simmons GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.