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Knicks vs Wizards prediction NBA · Tuesday, March 16

Tue, Mar 16 · 7:00 PM ETCapital One Arena

New York Knicks

2-3 · away

Projected score

120-108

Washington Wizards

2-3 · home

82% win NYwin WSH 18%

FavoriteNY

Projected margin11.4

Projected total228

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Washington Wizards (2-3) host the New York Knicks (2-3) on Tuesday, March 16 at 7:00 PM ET at Capital One Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Knicks a 82% chance to win and projects a 120-108 score (Knicks – Wizards), about 228 total points. This season, the Wizards are 1-1 at home and the Knicks are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Wizards and 2-3 for the Knicks (current streaks: Wizards L2, Knicks W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 21% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jose Alvarado (Knicks), Justin Champagnie (Wizards), Tristan Vukcevic (Wizards) and Jamir Watkins (Wizards). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Knicks dominate this matchup. The model projects Wizards 108 – 120 Knicks, a margin of about 11.4 points in favor of the Knicks and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other). The Knicks will be without Jose Alvarado.

The overall strength gap (-7.7 vs +3.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Knicks' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.0 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Wizards

Team strength (adjusted point differential)WSH -7.7 / NY +3.8 per game

-11.6

Home-court advantageWizards at home

+2.3

InjuriesWSH: 3 out, 1 questionable · NY: 1 out, 0 questionable

-2.2

Expected marginfor Wizards

-11.4

Scenarios

Wizards win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

21%

Knicks win by 10+

55%

Stat comparison Current season

NYWSH

114.5

Points scored / game

113.1

110.0

Points allowed / game

122.2

42.2 %

Field goal %

48.0 %

35.9 %

3-point %

28.5 %

39.0

3-pointers attempted / game

31.6

75.8 %

Free throw %

83.1 %

48.2

Rebounds / game

40.0

26.8

Assists / game

25.8

7.2

Steals / game

7.4

4.4

Blocks / game

5.6

14.8

Turnovers / game

13.6

Players to watch

Knicks

Jalen BrunsonG · #1125.8pts / game

Tyler KolekG · #137.0assists

Karl-Anthony TownsC · #3213.8rebounds

Wizards

Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game

Trae YoungG · #310.4assists

Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

106-100L

107-103L

111-102W

111-97W

133-127

WSH

128-116L

112-102W

124-120L

110-103L

121-111

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

NY 82% · WSH 18%

ESPN BPI

NY 69% · WSH 31%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

NY		WSH
2-3	Record	2-3
114.5	Points scored / game	113.1
110.0	Points allowed / game	122.2
+3.8	Adjusted margin / game	-7.7
W2	Current streak	L2
2-3	Last 10 games	2-3
1-1 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
53-29 (+6.3)	Last season	17-65 (-12.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Knicks

Jose Alvarado GOut

Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut

Tristan Vukcevic FOut

Jamir Watkins GOut

Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.