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Hawks vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Monday, March 15

Mon, Mar 15 · 9:30 PM ETAmerican Airlines Center · NBCSN, KFAA-TV, MavsTV
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks
2-3 · away
Projected score
118-113
Dallas Mavericks
Dallas Mavericks
3-2 · home
67% win ATLwin DAL 33%
FavoriteATL
Projected margin5.4
Projected total231
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Dallas Mavericks (3-2) host the Atlanta Hawks (2-3) on Monday, March 15 at 9:30 PM ET at American Airlines Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hawks a 67% chance to win and projects a 118-113 score (Hawks – Mavericks), about 231 total points. This season, the Mavericks are 1-1 at home and the Hawks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Mavericks and 2-3 for the Hawks (current streaks: Mavericks W2, Hawks L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks), Henri Veesaar (Hawks), Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks), Santi Aldama (Mavericks), Sergio de Larrea (Mavericks) and Dereck Lively II (Mavericks). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Hawks are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Mavericks 113 – 118 Hawks, a margin of about 5.4 points in favor of the Hawks and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 2 others). The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar.

  • The overall strength gap (-2.8 vs +2.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Hawks' offense (119.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Mavericks
Team strength (adjusted point differential)DAL -2.8 / ATL +2.7 per game
-5.5
Home-court advantageMavericks at home
+2.3
InjuriesDAL: 4 out, 1 questionable · ATL: 2 out, 0 questionable
-2.2
Expected marginfor Mavericks
-5.4

Scenarios

Mavericks win by 10+
11%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
28%
Hawks win by 10+
36%

Stat comparison Current season

ATLDAL
119.0
Points scored / game
114.1
115.8
Points allowed / game
117.4
46.9 %
Field goal %
49.0 %
34.8 %
3-point %
34.6 %
41.4
3-pointers attempted / game
38.2
72.8 %
Free throw %
76.7 %
41.4
Rebounds / game
44.2
32.2
Assists / game
27.6
10.2
Steals / game
9.0
3.6
Blocks / game
7.4
14.0
Turnovers / game
15.6

Players to watch

Hawks
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game
Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists
Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds
Mavericks
Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / game
Cooper FlaggF · #326.8assists
P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
ATL
WORL132-125WCHA128-81LHOU121-114LHOU120-110LMIA129-117
DAL
LHOU128-110WIND121-105LSA122-106WMIA113-109WOKC120-96

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Jan 2DALupcomingATLMar 15ATLthis gameDAL

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
ATL 67% · DAL 33%
ESPN BPI
ATL 53% · DAL 47%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

ATLDAL
2-3Record3-2
119.0Points scored / game114.1
115.8Points allowed / game117.4
+2.7Adjusted margin / game-2.8
L3Current streakW2
2-3Last 10 games3-2
2-1 roadHome / road record1-1 home
46-36 (+2.4)Last season26-56 (-5.5)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Atlanta Hawks Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut
Henri Veesaar COut

Dallas Mavericks Injury report Mavericks

Tarik Biberovic FOut
Santi Aldama FOut
Sergio de Larrea FOut
Dereck Lively II COut
Naji Marshall FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.