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Mavericks vs Hawks prediction NBA · Saturday, January 2

Sat, Jan 2 · 7:30 PM ETState Farm Arena · NBA TV, KFAA-TV, MavsTV

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 · away

Projected score

109-120

Atlanta Hawks

2-3 · home

18% win DALwin ATL 82%

FavoriteATL

Projected margin11.6

Projected total229

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Atlanta Hawks (2-3) host the Dallas Mavericks (3-2) on Saturday, January 2 at 7:30 PM ET at State Farm Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hawks a 82% chance to win and projects a 109-120 score (Mavericks – Hawks), about 229 total points. This season, the Hawks are 0-2 at home and the Mavericks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Hawks and 3-2 for the Mavericks (current streaks: Hawks L3, Mavericks W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 21% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Mavericks played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks), Santi Aldama (Mavericks), Sergio de Larrea (Mavericks), Dereck Lively II (Mavericks), Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks) and Henri Veesaar (Hawks). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Hawks dominate this matchup. The model projects Hawks 120 – 109 Mavericks, a margin of about 11.6 points in favor of the Hawks and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Mavericks played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar. The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 2 others).

The overall strength gap (+2.7 vs -2.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Hawks' offense (119.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Hawks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)ATL +2.7 / DAL -2.8 per game

+5.5

Home-court advantageHawks at home

+2.3

Back-to-backMavericks played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesATL: 2 out, 0 questionable · DAL: 4 out, 1 questionable

+2.2

Expected marginfor Hawks

+11.6

Scenarios

Hawks win by 10+

55%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

21%

Mavericks win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

DALATL

114.1

Points scored / game

119.0

117.4

Points allowed / game

115.8

49.0 %

Field goal %

46.9 %

34.6 %

3-point %

34.8 %

38.2

3-pointers attempted / game

41.4

76.7 %

Free throw %

72.8 %

44.2

Rebounds / game

41.4

27.6

Assists / game

32.2

9.0

Steals / game

10.2

7.4

Blocks / game

3.6

15.6

Turnovers / game

14.0

Players to watch

Mavericks

Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / game

Cooper FlaggF · #326.8assists

P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8rebounds

Hawks

Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game

Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists

Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DAL

128-110W

121-105L

122-106W

113-109W

120-96

ATL

132-125W

128-81L

121-114L

120-110L

129-117

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DAL 18% · ATL 82%

ESPN BPI

DAL 35% · ATL 65%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DAL		ATL
3-2	Record	2-3
114.1	Points scored / game	119.0
117.4	Points allowed / game	115.8
-2.8	Adjusted margin / game	+2.7
W2	Current streak	L3
3-2	Last 10 games	2-3
2-1 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
26-56 (-5.5)	Last season	46-36 (+2.4)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Mavericks

Tarik Biberovic FOut

Santi Aldama FOut

Sergio de Larrea FOut

Dereck Lively II COut

Naji Marshall FDay-To-Day

Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut

Henri Veesaar COut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.