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Magic vs Bulls prediction NBA · Monday, March 15

Mon, Mar 15 · 8:00 PM ETUnited Center

Orlando Magic

1-3 · away

Projected score

117-116

Chicago Bulls

1-4 · home

52% win ORLwin CHI 48%

FavoriteORL

Projected margin0.6

Projected total232

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Chicago Bulls (1-4) host the Orlando Magic (1-3) on Monday, March 15 at 8:00 PM ET at United Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Magic a 52% chance to win and projects a 117-116 score (Magic – Bulls), about 232 total points. This season, the Bulls are 0-2 at home and the Magic are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Bulls and 1-3 for the Magic (current streaks: Bulls L3, Magic L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jonathan Isaac (Magic), Jalen Suggs (Magic), Paolo Banchero (Magic), Noah Penda (Magic), Izaiyah Nelson (Magic) and Patrick Williams (Bulls)…. Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Bulls 116 – 117 Magic, a margin of about 0.6 points in favor of the Magic and a total around 232 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Bulls will be without Patrick Williams or Nic Claxton. The Magic will be without Jonathan Isaac or Jalen Suggs (and 3 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-7.2 vs -2.3 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Bulls need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Magic's defense allows clearly fewer points (116.2 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Bulls

Team strength (adjusted point differential)CHI -7.2 / ORL -2.3 per game

-4.9

Home-court advantageBulls at home

+2.3

InjuriesCHI: 2 out, 2 questionable · ORL: 5 out, 0 questionable

+2.0

Expected marginfor Bulls

-0.6

Scenarios

Bulls win by 10+

20%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Magic win by 10+

23%

Stat comparison Current season

ORLCHI

113.6

Points scored / game

115.6

116.2

Points allowed / game

124.1

44.2 %

Field goal %

42.1 %

31.4 %

3-point %

27.6 %

39.0

3-pointers attempted / game

42.0

75.0 %

Free throw %

78.6 %

41.3

Rebounds / game

44.8

26.0

Assists / game

24.4

7.8

Steals / game

9.0

4.5

Blocks / game

4.8

17.8

Turnovers / game

17.8

Players to watch

Magic

Franz WagnerF · #2219.5pts / game

Franz WagnerF · #226.0assists

Wendell Carter Jr.C · #349.0rebounds

Bulls

Norman PowellG · #2421.6pts / game

Josh GiddeyG · #38.0assists

Jalen SmithF · #258.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

ORL

136-115L

132-125L

115-93W

111-102L

129-99

CHI

135-92W

132-125L

124-120L

134-99L

133-127

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

ORL 52% · CHI 48%

ESPN BPI

ORL 63% · CHI 37%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

ORL		CHI
1-3	Record	1-4
113.6	Points scored / game	115.6
116.2	Points allowed / game	124.1
-2.3	Adjusted margin / game	-7.2
L1	Current streak	L3
1-3	Last 10 games	1-4
1-1 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
45-37 (+0.6)	Last season	31-51 (-5.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Magic

Jonathan Isaac FOut

Jalen Suggs GOut

Paolo Banchero FOut

Noah Penda FOut

Izaiyah Nelson FOut

Injury report Bulls

Patrick Williams FOut

Nic Claxton COut

Jalen Smith FDay-To-Day

Tobe Awaka FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.