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Bulls vs Magic prediction NBA · Thursday, January 28

Thu, Jan 28 · 7:00 PM ETKia Center

Chicago Bulls

1-4 · away

Projected score

113-119

Orlando Magic

1-3 · home

34% win CHIwin ORL 66%

FavoriteORL

Projected margin5.2

Projected total232

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Orlando Magic (1-3) host the Chicago Bulls (1-4) on Thursday, January 28 at 7:00 PM ET at Kia Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Magic a 66% chance to win and projects a 113-119 score (Bulls – Magic), about 232 total points. This season, the Magic are 0-2 at home and the Bulls are 1-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-3 for the Magic and 1-4 for the Bulls (current streaks: Magic L1, Bulls L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Patrick Williams (Bulls), Nic Claxton (Bulls), Jonathan Isaac (Magic), Jalen Suggs (Magic), Paolo Banchero (Magic) and Noah Penda (Magic)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Magic, but the Bulls have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Magic 119 – 113 Bulls, a margin of about 5.2 points in favor of the Magic and a total around 232 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Magic will be without Jonathan Isaac or Jalen Suggs (and 3 others). The Bulls will be without Patrick Williams or Nic Claxton. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-2.3 vs -7.2 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Bulls need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Magic's defense allows clearly fewer points (116.2 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Magic

Team strength (adjusted point differential)ORL -2.3 / CHI -7.2 per game

+4.9

Home-court advantageMagic at home

+2.3

InjuriesORL: 5 out, 0 questionable · CHI: 2 out, 2 questionable

-2.0

Expected marginfor Magic

+5.2

Scenarios

Magic win by 10+

35%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

Bulls win by 10+

11%

Stat comparison Current season

CHIORL

115.6

Points scored / game

113.6

124.1

Points allowed / game

116.2

42.1 %

Field goal %

44.2 %

27.6 %

3-point %

31.4 %

42.0

3-pointers attempted / game

39.0

78.6 %

Free throw %

75.0 %

44.8

Rebounds / game

41.3

24.4

Assists / game

26.0

9.0

Steals / game

7.8

4.8

Blocks / game

4.5

17.8

Turnovers / game

17.8

Players to watch

Bulls

Norman PowellG · #2421.6pts / game

Josh GiddeyG · #38.0assists

Jalen SmithF · #258.2rebounds

Magic

Franz WagnerF · #2219.5pts / game

Franz WagnerF · #226.0assists

Wendell Carter Jr.C · #349.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

CHI

135-92W

132-125L

124-120L

134-99L

133-127

ORL

136-115L

132-125L

115-93W

111-102L

129-99

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

CHI 34% · ORL 66%

ESPN BPI

CHI 25% · ORL 75%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

CHI		ORL
1-4	Record	1-3
115.6	Points scored / game	113.6
124.1	Points allowed / game	116.2
-7.2	Adjusted margin / game	-2.3
L3	Current streak	L1
1-4	Last 10 games	1-3
1-2 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
31-51 (-5.2)	Last season	45-37 (+0.6)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Bulls

Patrick Williams FOut

Nic Claxton COut

Jalen Smith FDay-To-Day

Tobe Awaka FDay-To-Day

Injury report Magic

Jonathan Isaac FOut

Jalen Suggs GOut

Paolo Banchero FOut

Noah Penda FOut

Izaiyah Nelson FOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.