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Wizards vs Timberwolves prediction NBA · Sunday, March 14

Sun, Mar 14 · 8:00 PM ETTarget Center · DAZN MIN

Washington Wizards

2-3 · away

Projected score

108-122

Minnesota Timberwolves

3-2 · home

12% win WSHwin MIN 88%

FavoriteMIN

Projected margin14.8

Projected total230

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2) host the Washington Wizards (2-3) on Sunday, March 14 at 8:00 PM ET at Target Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Timberwolves a 88% chance to win and projects a 108-122 score (Wizards – Timberwolves), about 230 total points. This season, the Timberwolves are 1-1 at home and the Wizards are 1-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Timberwolves and 2-3 for the Wizards (current streaks: Timberwolves L2, Wizards L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 16% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Timberwolves played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Justin Champagnie (Wizards), Tristan Vukcevic (Wizards), Jamir Watkins (Wizards), Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves) and Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Timberwolves start with a clear edge. The model projects Timberwolves 122 – 108 Wizards, a margin of about 14.8 points in favor of the Timberwolves and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Timberwolves played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo. The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other).

The overall strength gap (+5.2 vs -7.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Timberwolves' offense (118.7 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Timberwolves' defense allows clearly fewer points (112.6 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Timberwolves

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIN +5.2 / WSH -7.7 per game

+12.9

Home-court advantageTimberwolves at home

+2.3

Back-to-backTimberwolves played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesMIN: 2 out, 0 questionable · WSH: 3 out, 1 questionable

+1.3

Expected marginfor Timberwolves

+14.8

Scenarios

Timberwolves win by 10+

65%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

16%

Wizards win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

WSHMIN

113.1

Points scored / game

118.7

122.2

Points allowed / game

112.6

48.0 %

Field goal %

47.3 %

28.5 %

3-point %

38.4 %

31.6

3-pointers attempted / game

40.6

83.1 %

Free throw %

62.7 %

40.0

Rebounds / game

51.6

25.8

Assists / game

27.0

7.4

Steals / game

9.2

5.6

Blocks / game

4.4

13.6

Turnovers / game

16.2

Players to watch

Wizards

Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game

Trae YoungG · #310.4assists

Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds

Timberwolves

Anthony EdwardsG · #533.2pts / game

LaMelo BallG · #16.6assists

Rudy GobertC · #2712.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

WSH

128-116L

112-102W

124-120L

110-103L

121-111

MIN

131-106W

115-93W

117-94L

127-125 OTL

119-114

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

WSH 12% · MIN 88%

ESPN BPI

WSH 22% · MIN 78%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

WSH		MIN
2-3	Record	3-2
113.1	Points scored / game	118.7
122.2	Points allowed / game	112.6
-7.7	Adjusted margin / game	+5.2
L2	Current streak	L2
2-3	Last 10 games	3-2
1-2 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
17-65 (-12.0)	Last season	49-33 (+3.4)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut

Tristan Vukcevic FOut

Jamir Watkins GOut

Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Injury report Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards GOut

Donte DiVincenzo GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.