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Timberwolves vs Wizards prediction NBA · Friday, January 8

Fri, Jan 8 · 7:00 PM ETCapital One Arena · DAZN MIN

Minnesota Timberwolves

3-2 · away

Projected score

121-109

Washington Wizards

2-3 · home

83% win MINwin WSH 17%

FavoriteMIN

Projected margin11.8

Projected total230

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Washington Wizards (2-3) host the Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2) on Friday, January 8 at 7:00 PM ET at Capital One Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Timberwolves a 83% chance to win and projects a 121-109 score (Timberwolves – Wizards), about 230 total points. This season, the Wizards are 1-1 at home and the Timberwolves are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Wizards and 3-2 for the Timberwolves (current streaks: Wizards L2, Timberwolves L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 20% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Wizards and the Timberwolves played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves), Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves), Justin Champagnie (Wizards), Tristan Vukcevic (Wizards) and Jamir Watkins (Wizards). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Timberwolves start with a clear edge. The model projects Wizards 109 – 121 Timberwolves, a margin of about 11.8 points in favor of the Timberwolves and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Wizards and the Timberwolves played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other). The Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo.

The overall strength gap (-7.7 vs +5.2 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Timberwolves' offense (118.7 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Timberwolves' defense allows clearly fewer points (112.6 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Wizards

Team strength (adjusted point differential)WSH -7.7 / MIN +5.2 per game

-12.9

Home-court advantageWizards at home

+2.3

InjuriesWSH: 3 out, 1 questionable · MIN: 2 out, 0 questionable

-1.3

Expected marginfor Wizards

-11.8

Scenarios

Wizards win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

20%

Timberwolves win by 10+

56%

Stat comparison Current season

MINWSH

118.7

Points scored / game

113.1

112.6

Points allowed / game

122.2

47.3 %

Field goal %

48.0 %

38.4 %

3-point %

28.5 %

40.6

3-pointers attempted / game

31.6

62.7 %

Free throw %

83.1 %

51.6

Rebounds / game

40.0

27.0

Assists / game

25.8

9.2

Steals / game

7.4

4.4

Blocks / game

5.6

16.2

Turnovers / game

13.6

Players to watch

Timberwolves

Anthony EdwardsG · #533.2pts / game

LaMelo BallG · #16.6assists

Rudy GobertC · #2712.2rebounds

Wizards

Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game

Trae YoungG · #310.4assists

Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIN

131-106W

115-93W

117-94L

127-125 OTL

119-114

WSH

128-116L

112-102W

124-120L

110-103L

121-111

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIN 83% · WSH 17%

ESPN BPI

MIN 73% · WSH 27%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MIN		WSH
3-2	Record	2-3
118.7	Points scored / game	113.1
112.6	Points allowed / game	122.2
+5.2	Adjusted margin / game	-7.7
L2	Current streak	L2
3-2	Last 10 games	2-3
2-1 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
49-33 (+3.4)	Last season	17-65 (-12.0)
Yes	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards GOut

Donte DiVincenzo GOut

Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut

Tristan Vukcevic FOut

Jamir Watkins GOut

Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.