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76ers vs Timberwolves prediction NBA · Saturday, March 13

Sat, Mar 13 · 8:30 PM ETTarget Center · ABC
Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia 76ers
4-1 · away
Projected score
109-118
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota Timberwolves
3-2 · home
24% win PHIwin MIN 76%
FavoriteMIN
Projected margin8.9
Projected total227
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2) host the Philadelphia 76ers (4-1) on Saturday, March 13 at 8:30 PM ET at Target Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Timberwolves a 76% chance to win and projects a 109-118 score (76ers – Timberwolves), about 227 total points. This season, the Timberwolves are 1-1 at home and the 76ers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Timberwolves and 4-1 for the 76ers (current streaks: Timberwolves L2, 76ers W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 24% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jabari Walker (76ers), Tacko Fall (76ers), Dominick Barlow (76ers), Ariel Hukporti (76ers), Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves) and Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Timberwolves dominate this matchup. The model projects Timberwolves 118 – 109 76ers, a margin of about 8.9 points in favor of the Timberwolves and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo. The 76ers will be without Jabari Walker or Tacko Fall (and 2 others).

  • The overall strength gap (+5.2 vs +0.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The 76ers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Timberwolves' offense (118.7 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Timberwolves
Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIN +5.2 / PHI +0.7 per game
+4.4
Home-court advantageTimberwolves at home
+2.3
InjuriesMIN: 2 out, 0 questionable · PHI: 4 out, 1 questionable
+2.2
Expected marginfor Timberwolves
+8.9

Scenarios

Timberwolves win by 10+
46%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
24%
76ers win by 10+
7%

Stat comparison Current season

PHIMIN
114.4
Points scored / game
118.7
113.5
Points allowed / game
112.6
42.8 %
Field goal %
47.3 %
32.6 %
3-point %
38.4 %
35.0
3-pointers attempted / game
40.6
77.5 %
Free throw %
62.7 %
42.2
Rebounds / game
51.6
24.6
Assists / game
27.0
9.8
Steals / game
9.2
5.6
Blocks / game
4.4
12.6
Turnovers / game
16.2

Players to watch

76ers
Tyrese MaxeyG · #028.4pts / game
LeBron JamesF · #236.8assists
Joel EmbiidC · #2110.0rebounds
Timberwolves
Anthony EdwardsG · #533.2pts / game
LaMelo BallG · #16.6assists
Rudy GobertC · #2712.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
PHI
WNY106-100WCLE114-106WMIL127-116LDET106-93WIND114-109
MIN
WMIA131-106WORL115-93WTOR117-94LCLE127-125 OTLGS119-114

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Jan 16MINupcomingPHIMar 13PHIthis gameMIN

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
PHI 24% · MIN 76%
ESPN BPI
PHI 37% · MIN 63%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

PHIMIN
4-1Record3-2
114.4Points scored / game118.7
113.5Points allowed / game112.6
+0.7Adjusted margin / game+5.2
W1Current streakL2
4-1Last 10 games3-2
2-0 roadHome / road record1-1 home
45-37 (-0.2)Last season49-33 (+3.4)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Philadelphia 76ers Injury report 76ers

Jabari Walker FOut
Tacko Fall COut
Dominick Barlow FOut
Ariel Hukporti COut
Jaylen Brown GDay-To-Day

Minnesota Timberwolves Injury report Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards GOut
Donte DiVincenzo GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.