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Timberwolves vs 76ers prediction NBA · Saturday, January 16

Sat, Jan 16 · 12:30 PM ETXfinity Mobile Arena · DAZN MIN

Minnesota Timberwolves

3-2 · away

Projected score

116-112

Philadelphia 76ers

4-1 · home

63% win MINwin PHI 37%

FavoriteMIN

Projected margin4.3

Projected total227

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Philadelphia 76ers (4-1) host the Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2) on Saturday, January 16 at 12:30 PM ET at Xfinity Mobile Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Timberwolves a 63% chance to win and projects a 116-112 score (Timberwolves – 76ers), about 227 total points. This season, the 76ers are 2-1 at home and the Timberwolves are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the 76ers and 3-2 for the Timberwolves (current streaks: 76ers W1, Timberwolves L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves), Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves), Jabari Walker (76ers), Tacko Fall (76ers), Dominick Barlow (76ers) and Ariel Hukporti (76ers). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Timberwolves, but the 76ers have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects 76ers 112 – 116 Timberwolves, a margin of about 4.3 points in favor of the Timberwolves and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The 76ers will be without Jabari Walker or Tacko Fall (and 2 others). The Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo.

The overall strength gap (+0.7 vs +5.2 pts/game) is the main factor.
The 76ers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Timberwolves' offense (118.7 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge 76ers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)PHI +0.7 / MIN +5.2 per game

-4.4

Home-court advantage76ers at home

+2.3

InjuriesPHI: 4 out, 1 questionable · MIN: 2 out, 0 questionable

-2.2

Expected marginfor 76ers

-4.3

Scenarios

76ers win by 10+

13%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

Timberwolves win by 10+

32%

Stat comparison Current season

MINPHI

118.7

Points scored / game

114.4

112.6

Points allowed / game

113.5

47.3 %

Field goal %

42.8 %

38.4 %

3-point %

32.6 %

40.6

3-pointers attempted / game

35.0

62.7 %

Free throw %

77.5 %

51.6

Rebounds / game

42.2

27.0

Assists / game

24.6

9.2

Steals / game

9.8

4.4

Blocks / game

5.6

16.2

Turnovers / game

12.6

Players to watch

Timberwolves

Anthony EdwardsG · #533.2pts / game

LaMelo BallG · #16.6assists

Rudy GobertC · #2712.2rebounds

76ers

Tyrese MaxeyG · #028.4pts / game

LeBron JamesF · #236.8assists

Joel EmbiidC · #2110.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIN

131-106W

115-93W

117-94L

127-125 OTL

119-114

PHI

106-100W

114-106W

127-116L

106-93W

114-109

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIN 63% · PHI 37%

ESPN BPI

MIN 51% · PHI 50%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MIN		PHI
3-2	Record	4-1
118.7	Points scored / game	114.4
112.6	Points allowed / game	113.5
+5.2	Adjusted margin / game	+0.7
L2	Current streak	W1
3-2	Last 10 games	4-1
2-1 road	Home / road record	2-1 home
49-33 (+3.4)	Last season	45-37 (-0.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards GOut

Donte DiVincenzo GOut

Injury report 76ers

Jabari Walker FOut

Tacko Fall COut

Dominick Barlow FOut

Ariel Hukporti COut

Jaylen Brown GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.