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Suns vs Hornets prediction NBA · Saturday, March 13

Sat, Mar 13 · 6:00 PM ETSpectrum Center · DAZN CHA, Arizona's Family 3TV, Suns Live

Phoenix Suns

1-2 · away

Projected score

110-112

Charlotte Hornets

3-2 · home

43% win PHXwin CHA 57%

FavoriteCHA

Projected margin2.1

Projected total222

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Charlotte Hornets (3-2) host the Phoenix Suns (1-2) on Saturday, March 13 at 6:00 PM ET at Spectrum Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hornets a 57% chance to win and projects a 110-112 score (Suns – Hornets), about 222 total points. This season, the Hornets are 2-1 at home and the Suns are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Hornets and 1-2 for the Suns (current streaks: Hornets L1, Suns L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Mark Williams (Suns), Kon Knueppel (Hornets), Coby White (Hornets), Grant Williams (Hornets) and Kylan Boswell (Hornets). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Hornets 112 – 110 Suns, a margin of about 2.1 points in favor of the Hornets and a total around 222 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Hornets will be without Kon Knueppel or Coby White (and 2 others). The Suns will be without Mark Williams. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Suns need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Hornets' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Hornets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)CHA +1.1 / PHX -1.4 per game

+2.5

Home-court advantageHornets at home

+2.3

InjuriesCHA: 4 out, 1 questionable · PHX: 1 out, 1 questionable

-2.7

Expected marginfor Hornets

+2.1

Scenarios

Hornets win by 10+

26%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Suns win by 10+

17%

Stat comparison Current season

PHXCHA

111.9

Points scored / game

111.6

113.6

Points allowed / game

110.3

45.6 %

Field goal %

41.7 %

31.9 %

3-point %

30.6 %

39.7

3-pointers attempted / game

43.2

73.9 %

Free throw %

85.2 %

39.7

Rebounds / game

47.4

25.3

Assists / game

20.6

8.7

Steals / game

6.8

5.3

Blocks / game

5.2

14.0

Turnovers / game

19.0

Players to watch

Suns

Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / game

Devin BookerG · #155.3assists

Khaman MaluachC · #107.3rebounds

Hornets

Brandon MillerF · #2425.6pts / game

Dennis SchroderG · #174.8assists

Moussa DiabateF · #149.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

PHX

123-103L

119-116L

124-83W

131-122L

125-114

CHA

110-103L

128-81W

115-110W

110-103L

97-89

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

PHX 43% · CHA 57%

ESPN BPI

PHX 44% · CHA 56%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

PHX		CHA
1-2	Record	3-2
111.9	Points scored / game	111.6
113.6	Points allowed / game	110.3
-1.4	Adjusted margin / game	+1.1
L1	Current streak	L1
1-2	Last 10 games	3-2
0-2 road	Home / road record	2-1 home
45-37 (+1.5)	Last season	44-38 (+4.8)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Suns

Mark Williams COut

Oso Ighodaro FDay-To-Day

Injury report Hornets

Kon Knueppel GOut

Coby White GOut

Grant Williams FOut

Kylan Boswell GOut

Dennis Schroder GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.