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Hornets vs Suns prediction NBA · Thursday, November 12

Thu, Nov 12 · 9:00 PM ETMortgage Matchup Center · Suns Live, Arizona's Family 3TV

Charlotte Hornets

3-2 · away

Projected score

110-112

Phoenix Suns

1-2 · home

42% win CHAwin PHX 58%

FavoritePHX

Projected margin2.5

Projected total222

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Phoenix Suns (1-2) host the Charlotte Hornets (3-2) on Thursday, November 12 at 9:00 PM ET at Mortgage Matchup Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Suns a 58% chance to win and projects a 110-112 score (Hornets – Suns), about 222 total points. This season, the Suns are 1-0 at home and the Hornets are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-2 for the Suns and 3-2 for the Hornets (current streaks: Suns L1, Hornets L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kon Knueppel (Hornets), Coby White (Hornets), Grant Williams (Hornets), Kylan Boswell (Hornets) and Mark Williams (Suns). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Suns 112 – 110 Hornets, a margin of about 2.5 points in favor of the Suns and a total around 222 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Suns will be without Mark Williams. The Hornets will be without Kon Knueppel or Coby White (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Hornets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Hornets' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Suns

Team strength (adjusted point differential)PHX -1.4 / CHA +1.1 per game

-2.5

Home-court advantageSuns at home

+2.3

InjuriesPHX: 1 out, 1 questionable · CHA: 4 out, 1 questionable

+2.7

Expected marginfor Suns

+2.5

Scenarios

Suns win by 10+

27%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Hornets win by 10+

16%

Stat comparison Current season

CHAPHX

111.6

Points scored / game

111.9

110.3

Points allowed / game

113.6

41.7 %

Field goal %

45.6 %

30.6 %

3-point %

31.9 %

43.2

3-pointers attempted / game

39.7

85.2 %

Free throw %

73.9 %

47.4

Rebounds / game

39.7

20.6

Assists / game

25.3

6.8

Steals / game

8.7

5.2

Blocks / game

5.3

19.0

Turnovers / game

14.0

Players to watch

Hornets

Brandon MillerF · #2425.6pts / game

Dennis SchroderG · #174.8assists

Moussa DiabateF · #149.4rebounds

Suns

Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / game

Devin BookerG · #155.3assists

Khaman MaluachC · #107.3rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

CHA

110-103L

128-81W

115-110W

110-103L

97-89

PHX

123-103L

119-116L

124-83W

131-122L

125-114

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

CHA 42% · PHX 58%

ESPN BPI

CHA 47% · PHX 53%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

CHA		PHX
3-2	Record	1-2
111.6	Points scored / game	111.9
110.3	Points allowed / game	113.6
+1.1	Adjusted margin / game	-1.4
L1	Current streak	L1
3-2	Last 10 games	1-2
1-1 road	Home / road record	1-0 home
44-38 (+4.8)	Last season	45-37 (+1.5)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Hornets

Kon Knueppel GOut

Coby White GOut

Grant Williams FOut

Kylan Boswell GOut

Dennis Schroder GDay-To-Day

Injury report Suns

Mark Williams COut

Oso Ighodaro FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.