Match analysis Today's games NBA standings EuroLeague Track record

Pacers vs Rockets prediction NBA · Saturday, March 13

Sat, Mar 13 · 5:30 PM ETToyota Center (Houston) · Prime Video

Indiana Pacers

2-3 · away

Projected score

106-121

Houston Rockets

5-0 · home

11% win INDwin HOU 89%

FavoriteHOU

Projected margin15.2

Projected total227

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Houston Rockets (5-0) host the Indiana Pacers (2-3) on Saturday, March 13 at 5:30 PM ET at Toyota Center (Houston) in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Rockets a 89% chance to win and projects a 106-121 score (Pacers – Rockets), about 227 total points. This season, the Rockets are 2-0 at home and the Pacers are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 5-0 for the Rockets and 2-3 for the Pacers (current streaks: Rockets W5, Pacers L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 15% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Ivica Zubac (Pacers), T.J. McConnell (Pacers), Ben Sheppard (Pacers), Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers), Johnny Furphy (Pacers) and Reed Sheppard (Rockets)…. Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Rockets dominate this matchup. The model projects Rockets 121 – 106 Pacers, a margin of about 15.2 points in favor of the Rockets and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Rockets will be without Reed Sheppard or Marcus Smart (and 1 other). The Pacers will be without Ivica Zubac or T.J. McConnell (and 3 others).

The overall strength gap (+6.7 vs -4.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Rockets' offense (117.5 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Rockets' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.7 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Rockets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)HOU +6.7 / IND -4.7 per game

+11.4

Home-court advantageRockets at home

+2.3

InjuriesHOU: 3 out, 1 questionable · IND: 5 out, 2 questionable

+1.4

Expected marginfor Rockets

+15.2

Scenarios

Rockets win by 10+

66%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

15%

Pacers win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

INDHOU

113.2

Points scored / game

117.5

118.8

Points allowed / game

109.7

47.1 %

Field goal %

51.7 %

31.2 %

3-point %

40.4 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

32.2

72.7 %

Free throw %

84.7 %

44.0

Rebounds / game

44.8

29.4

Assists / game

28.2

6.4

Steals / game

10.2

4.8

Blocks / game

6.0

14.8

Turnovers / game

15.8

Players to watch

Pacers

Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game

Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists

Ivica ZubacC · #409.0rebounds

Rockets

Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / game

Alperen SengunC · #287.0assists

Alperen SengunC · #289.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

IND

123-120L

121-105W

136-109L

110-102L

114-109

HOU

128-110W

114-110W

121-114W

120-110W

132-100

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

IND 11% · HOU 89%

ESPN BPI

IND 29% · HOU 71%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

IND		HOU
2-3	Record	5-0
113.2	Points scored / game	117.5
118.8	Points allowed / game	109.7
-4.7	Adjusted margin / game	+6.7
L2	Current streak	W5
2-3	Last 10 games	5-0
2-1 road	Home / road record	2-0 home
19-63 (-8.0)	Last season	52-30 (+5.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Pacers

Ivica Zubac COut

T.J. McConnell GOut

Ben Sheppard GOut

Tyrese Haliburton GOut

Johnny Furphy GOut

Andrew Nembhard GDay-To-Day

Aaron Nesmith GDay-To-Day

Injury report Rockets

Reed Sheppard GOut

Marcus Smart GOut

Steven Adams COut

Alperen Sengun CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.