Match analysis Today's games NBA standings EuroLeague Track record

Rockets vs Pacers prediction NBA · Wednesday, November 18

Wed, Nov 18 · 7:00 PM ETGainbridge Fieldhouse · DAZN IND

Houston Rockets

5-0 · away

Projected score

119-108

Indiana Pacers

2-3 · home

80% win HOUwin IND 20%

FavoriteHOU

Projected margin10.6

Projected total227

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Indiana Pacers (2-3) host the Houston Rockets (5-0) on Wednesday, November 18 at 7:00 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Rockets a 80% chance to win and projects a 119-108 score (Rockets – Pacers), about 227 total points. This season, the Pacers are 0-2 at home and the Rockets are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Pacers and 5-0 for the Rockets (current streaks: Pacers L2, Rockets W5). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 22% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Reed Sheppard (Rockets), Marcus Smart (Rockets), Steven Adams (Rockets), Ivica Zubac (Pacers), T.J. McConnell (Pacers) and Ben Sheppard (Pacers)…. Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Rockets start with a clear edge. The model projects Pacers 108 – 119 Rockets, a margin of about 10.6 points in favor of the Rockets and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pacers will be without Ivica Zubac or T.J. McConnell (and 3 others). The Rockets will be without Reed Sheppard or Marcus Smart (and 1 other).

The overall strength gap (-4.7 vs +6.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Rockets' offense (117.5 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Rockets' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.7 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pacers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)IND -4.7 / HOU +6.7 per game

-11.4

Home-court advantagePacers at home

+2.3

InjuriesIND: 5 out, 2 questionable · HOU: 3 out, 1 questionable

-1.4

Expected marginfor Pacers

-10.6

Scenarios

Pacers win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

22%

Rockets win by 10+

52%

Stat comparison Current season

HOUIND

117.5

Points scored / game

113.2

109.7

Points allowed / game

118.8

51.7 %

Field goal %

47.1 %

40.4 %

3-point %

31.2 %

32.2

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

84.7 %

Free throw %

72.7 %

44.8

Rebounds / game

44.0

28.2

Assists / game

29.4

10.2

Steals / game

6.4

6.0

Blocks / game

4.8

15.8

Turnovers / game

14.8

Players to watch

Rockets

Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / game

Alperen SengunC · #287.0assists

Alperen SengunC · #289.0rebounds

Pacers

Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game

Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists

Ivica ZubacC · #409.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

HOU

128-110W

114-110W

121-114W

120-110W

132-100

IND

123-120L

121-105W

136-109L

110-102L

114-109

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

HOU 80% · IND 20%

ESPN BPI

HOU 61% · IND 39%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

HOU		IND
5-0	Record	2-3
117.5	Points scored / game	113.2
109.7	Points allowed / game	118.8
+6.7	Adjusted margin / game	-4.7
W5	Current streak	L2
5-0	Last 10 games	2-3
3-0 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
52-30 (+5.2)	Last season	19-63 (-8.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Rockets

Reed Sheppard GOut

Marcus Smart GOut

Steven Adams COut

Alperen Sengun CDay-To-Day

Injury report Pacers

Ivica Zubac COut

T.J. McConnell GOut

Ben Sheppard GOut

Tyrese Haliburton GOut

Johnny Furphy GOut

Andrew Nembhard GDay-To-Day

Aaron Nesmith GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.