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Warriors vs Nuggets prediction NBA · Friday, March 12

Fri, Mar 12 · 10:00 PM ETBall Arena · Prime Video

Golden State Warriors

2-3 · away

Projected score

113-118

Denver Nuggets

2-2 · home

34% win GSwin DEN 66%

FavoriteDEN

Projected margin5.1

Projected total231

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Denver Nuggets (2-2) host the Golden State Warriors (2-3) on Friday, March 12 at 10:00 PM ET at Ball Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Nuggets a 66% chance to win and projects a 113-118 score (Warriors – Nuggets), about 231 total points. This season, the Nuggets are 1-1 at home and the Warriors are 2-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-2 for the Nuggets and 2-3 for the Warriors (current streaks: Nuggets W1, Warriors W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors), Moses Moody (Warriors), Jimmy Butler III (Warriors), Cameron Johnson (Nuggets), Spencer Jones (Nuggets) and Alpha Diallo (Nuggets)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Nuggets, but the Warriors have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Nuggets 118 – 113 Warriors, a margin of about 5.1 points in favor of the Nuggets and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Nuggets will be without Cameron Johnson or Spencer Jones (and 2 others). The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Warriors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Nuggets' offense (119.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Nuggets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DEN +2.6 / GS -0.8 per game

+3.4

Home-court advantageNuggets at home

+2.3

InjuriesDEN: 4 out, 0 questionable · GS: 3 out, 1 questionable

-0.5

Expected marginfor Nuggets

+5.1

Scenarios

Nuggets win by 10+

35%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

Warriors win by 10+

11%

Stat comparison Current season

GSDEN

115.5

Points scored / game

119.2

116.4

Points allowed / game

116.2

45.0 %

Field goal %

45.8 %

36.9 %

3-point %

32.8 %

39.0

3-pointers attempted / game

34.3

82.2 %

Free throw %

79.6 %

43.8

Rebounds / game

44.5

25.6

Assists / game

26.0

9.6

Steals / game

10.0

3.8

Blocks / game

4.8

16.8

Turnovers / game

15.3

Players to watch

Warriors

Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game

Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists

Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2rebounds

Nuggets

Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game

Nikola JokicC · #159.0assists

Nikola JokicC · #1510.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

127-105L

111-108L

131-122W

134-114W

119-114

DEN

121-106L

96-84W

141-135 OTL

134-114W

104-91

Head-to-head

GS lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

GS 34% · DEN 66%

ESPN BPI

GS 46% · DEN 54%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

GS		DEN
2-3	Record	2-2
115.5	Points scored / game	119.2
116.4	Points allowed / game	116.2
-0.8	Adjusted margin / game	+2.6
W2	Current streak	W1
2-3	Last 10 games	2-2
2-2 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
37-45 (-0.6)	Last season	54-28 (+5.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Warriors

Kristaps Porzingis COut

Moses Moody GOut

Jimmy Butler III FOut

Gui Santos FDay-To-Day

Injury report Nuggets

Cameron Johnson FOut

Spencer Jones FOut

Alpha Diallo FOut

Julian Strawther GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.