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Nuggets vs Warriors prediction NBA · Friday, December 25

Fri, Dec 25 · 10:30 PM ETChase Center · ABC, ESPN

Denver Nuggets

2-2 · away

Projected score

116-115

Golden State Warriors

2-3 · home

52% win DENwin GS 48%

FavoriteDEN

Projected margin0.5

Projected total231

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Golden State Warriors (2-3) host the Denver Nuggets (2-2) on Friday, December 25 at 10:30 PM ET at Chase Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Nuggets a 52% chance to win and projects a 116-115 score (Nuggets – Warriors), about 231 total points. This season, the Warriors are 0-1 at home and the Nuggets are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Warriors and 2-2 for the Nuggets (current streaks: Warriors W2, Nuggets W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Cameron Johnson (Nuggets), Spencer Jones (Nuggets), Alpha Diallo (Nuggets), Julian Strawther (Nuggets), Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors) and Moses Moody (Warriors)…. Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Warriors 115 – 116 Nuggets, a margin of about 0.5 points in favor of the Nuggets and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other). The Nuggets will be without Cameron Johnson or Spencer Jones (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Warriors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Nuggets' offense (119.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Warriors

Team strength (adjusted point differential)GS -0.8 / DEN +2.6 per game

-3.4

Home-court advantageWarriors at home

+2.3

InjuriesGS: 3 out, 1 questionable · DEN: 4 out, 0 questionable

+0.5

Expected marginfor Warriors

-0.5

Scenarios

Warriors win by 10+

20%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Nuggets win by 10+

22%

Stat comparison Current season

DENGS

119.2

Points scored / game

115.5

116.2

Points allowed / game

116.4

45.8 %

Field goal %

45.0 %

32.8 %

3-point %

36.9 %

34.3

3-pointers attempted / game

39.0

79.6 %

Free throw %

82.2 %

44.5

Rebounds / game

43.8

26.0

Assists / game

25.6

10.0

Steals / game

9.6

4.8

Blocks / game

3.8

15.3

Turnovers / game

16.8

Players to watch

Nuggets

Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game

Nikola JokicC · #159.0assists

Nikola JokicC · #1510.5rebounds

Warriors

Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game

Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists

Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DEN

121-106L

96-84W

141-135 OTL

134-114W

104-91

127-105L

111-108L

131-122W

134-114W

119-114

Head-to-head

GS lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DEN 52% · GS 48%

ESPN BPI

DEN 55% · GS 45%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DEN		GS
2-2	Record	2-3
119.2	Points scored / game	115.5
116.2	Points allowed / game	116.4
+2.6	Adjusted margin / game	-0.8
W1	Current streak	W2
2-2	Last 10 games	2-3
1-1 road	Home / road record	0-1 home
54-28 (+5.2)	Last season	37-45 (-0.6)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Nuggets

Cameron Johnson FOut

Spencer Jones FOut

Alpha Diallo FOut

Julian Strawther GOut

Injury report Warriors

Kristaps Porzingis COut

Moses Moody GOut

Jimmy Butler III FOut

Gui Santos FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.