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Kings vs Jazz prediction NBA · Friday, March 12

Fri, Mar 12 · 9:30 PM ETDelta Center · KJZZ-TV, Jazz+

Sacramento Kings

0-4 · away

Projected score

114-120

Utah Jazz

1-4 · home

32% win SACwin UTAH 68%

FavoriteUTAH

Projected margin6.0

Projected total234

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Utah Jazz (1-4) host the Sacramento Kings (0-4) on Friday, March 12 at 9:30 PM ET at Delta Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Jazz a 68% chance to win and projects a 114-120 score (Kings – Jazz), about 234 total points. This season, the Jazz are 1-3 at home and the Kings are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Jazz and 0-4 for the Kings (current streaks: Jazz L3, Kings L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Dylan Cardwell (Kings), Maxime Raynaud (Kings), Keegan Murray (Kings), Ben Simmons (Kings), Jaren Jackson Jr. (Jazz) and Trey Alexander (Jazz)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Jazz are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Jazz 120 – 114 Kings, a margin of about 6.0 points in favor of the Jazz and a total around 234 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Jazz will be without Jaren Jackson Jr. or Trey Alexander (and 1 other). The Kings will be without Dylan Cardwell or Maxime Raynaud (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Kings need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Jazz's offense (116.1 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Jazz

Team strength (adjusted point differential)UTAH -7.0 / SAC -10.1 per game

+3.1

Home-court advantageJazz at home

+2.3

InjuriesUTAH: 3 out, 1 questionable · SAC: 4 out, 0 questionable

+0.5

Expected marginfor Jazz

+6.0

Scenarios

Jazz win by 10+

37%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

28%

Kings win by 10+

10%

Stat comparison Current season

SACUTAH

110.2

Points scored / game

116.1

122.1

Points allowed / game

124.3

44.5 %

Field goal %

45.4 %

30.0 %

3-point %

33.9 %

32.5

3-pointers attempted / game

34.8

73.1 %

Free throw %

76.6 %

41.5

Rebounds / game

46.8

22.8

Assists / game

26.8

6.8

Steals / game

5.0

2.5

Blocks / game

6.4

14.3

Turnovers / game

17.0

Players to watch

Kings

Zach LaVineG · #827.2pts / game

Domantas SabonisF · #117.2assists

Domantas SabonisF · #1116.5rebounds

Jazz

Keyonte GeorgeG · #324.4pts / game

Keyonte GeorgeG · #36.8assists

Ace BaileyG · #198.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

SAC

L126-97L121-96L128-120L123-112L130-103

UTAH

123-103W

120-119L

132-123L

110-105L

117-111 OT

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

SAC 32% · UTAH 68%

ESPN BPI

SAC 22% · UTAH 78%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

SAC		UTAH
0-4	Record	1-4
110.2	Points scored / game	116.1
122.1	Points allowed / game	124.3
-10.1	Adjusted margin / game	-7.0
L4	Current streak	L3
0-4	Last 10 games	1-4
0-2 road	Home / road record	1-3 home
22-60 (-10.0)	Last season	22-60 (-8.4)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Kings

Dylan Cardwell COut

Maxime Raynaud COut

Keegan Murray FOut

Ben Simmons GOut

Injury report Jazz

Jaren Jackson Jr. FOut

Trey Alexander GOut

Jusuf Nurkic COut

Lauri Markkanen FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.