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Jazz vs Kings prediction NBA · Sunday, December 27

Sun, Dec 27 · 6:00 PM ETGolden 1 Center · KJZZ-TV, Jazz+

Utah Jazz

1-4 · away

Projected score

116-117

Sacramento Kings

0-4 · home

49% win UTAHwin SAC 51%

FavoriteSAC

Projected margin0.2

Projected total232

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Sacramento Kings (0-4) host the Utah Jazz (1-4) on Sunday, December 27 at 6:00 PM ET at Golden 1 Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Kings a 51% chance to win and projects a 116-117 score (Jazz – Kings), about 232 total points. This season, the Kings are 0-2 at home and the Jazz are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Kings and 1-4 for the Jazz (current streaks: Kings L4, Jazz L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Jazz played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Jaren Jackson Jr. (Jazz), Trey Alexander (Jazz), Jusuf Nurkic (Jazz), Dylan Cardwell (Kings), Maxime Raynaud (Kings) and Keegan Murray (Kings)…. Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Kings 117 – 116 Jazz, a margin of about 0.2 points in favor of the Kings and a total around 232 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Jazz played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Kings will be without Dylan Cardwell or Maxime Raynaud (and 2 others). The Jazz will be without Jaren Jackson Jr. or Trey Alexander (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Jazz need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Jazz's offense (116.1 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Kings

Team strength (adjusted point differential)SAC -10.1 / UTAH -7.0 per game

-3.1

Home-court advantageKings at home

+2.3

Back-to-backJazz played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesSAC: 4 out, 0 questionable · UTAH: 3 out, 1 questionable

-0.5

Expected marginfor Kings

+0.2

Scenarios

Kings win by 10+

22%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Jazz win by 10+

21%

Stat comparison Current season

UTAHSAC

116.1

Points scored / game

110.2

124.3

Points allowed / game

122.1

45.4 %

Field goal %

44.5 %

33.9 %

3-point %

30.0 %

34.8

3-pointers attempted / game

32.5

76.6 %

Free throw %

73.1 %

46.8

Rebounds / game

41.5

26.8

Assists / game

22.8

5.0

Steals / game

6.8

6.4

Blocks / game

2.5

17.0

Turnovers / game

14.3

Players to watch

Jazz

Keyonte GeorgeG · #324.4pts / game

Keyonte GeorgeG · #36.8assists

Ace BaileyG · #198.0rebounds

Kings

Zach LaVineG · #827.2pts / game

Domantas SabonisF · #117.2assists

Domantas SabonisF · #1116.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

UTAH

123-103W

120-119L

132-123L

110-105L

117-111 OT

SAC

L126-97L121-96L128-120L123-112L130-103

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

UTAH 49% · SAC 51%

ESPN BPI

UTAH 64% · SAC 36%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

UTAH		SAC
1-4	Record	0-4
116.1	Points scored / game	110.2
124.3	Points allowed / game	122.1
-7.0	Adjusted margin / game	-10.1
L3	Current streak	L4
1-4	Last 10 games	0-4
0-1 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
22-60 (-8.4)	Last season	22-60 (-10.0)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Jazz

Jaren Jackson Jr. FOut

Trey Alexander GOut

Jusuf Nurkic COut

Lauri Markkanen FDay-To-Day

Injury report Kings

Dylan Cardwell COut

Maxime Raynaud COut

Keegan Murray FOut

Ben Simmons GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.