Raptors vs Pelicans prediction NBA · Friday, March 12
At a glance
The New Orleans Pelicans (0-4) host the Toronto Raptors (3-1) on Friday, March 12 at 8:00 PM ET at Smoothie King Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Raptors a 73% chance to win and projects a 118-111 score (Raptors – Pelicans), about 229 total points. This season, the Pelicans are 0-2 at home and the Raptors are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Pelicans and 3-1 for the Raptors (current streaks: Pelicans L4, Raptors W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 26% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kawhi Leonard (Raptors), Nate Bittle (Raptors), Dejounte Murray (Pelicans), Jordan Poole (Pelicans) and Yves Missi (Pelicans). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
On paper, the Raptors dominate this matchup. The model projects Pelicans 111 – 118 Raptors, a margin of about 7.7 points in favor of the Raptors and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pelicans will be without Dejounte Murray or Jordan Poole (and 1 other). The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (-4.1 vs +5.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Pelicans need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Raptors' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.5 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
TORNO
Players to watch
Raptors
RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game
Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists
Scottie BarnesF · #47.2reboundsPelicans
Zion WilliamsonF · #121.8pts / game
Dejounte MurrayG · #56.0assists
Derik QueenC · #229.2reboundsRecent form
TOR
129-125W
135-92W
112-102L
117-94W
129-99NO107-106L
123-120L
120-119L
141-135 OTL104-91
NO
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| TOR | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 0-4 |
| 115.4 | Points scored / game | 115.7 |
| 109.5 | Points allowed / game | 120.5 |
| +5.0 | Adjusted margin / game | -4.1 |
| W1 | Current streak | L4 |
| 3-1 | Last 10 games | 0-4 |
| 1-1 road | Home / road record | 0-2 home |
| 46-36 (+2.8) | Last season | 26-56 (-4.5) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Raptors
Injury report Pelicans
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.