Pelicans vs Raptors prediction NBA · Monday, December 28
At a glance
The Toronto Raptors (3-1) host the New Orleans Pelicans (0-4) on Monday, December 28 at 7:30 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Raptors a 84% chance to win and projects a 108-121 score (Pelicans – Raptors), about 229 total points. This season, the Raptors are 2-0 at home and the Pelicans are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Raptors and 0-4 for the Pelicans (current streaks: Raptors W1, Pelicans L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 20% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Dejounte Murray (Pelicans), Jordan Poole (Pelicans), Yves Missi (Pelicans), Kawhi Leonard (Raptors) and Nate Bittle (Raptors). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
On paper, the Raptors dominate this matchup. The model projects Raptors 121 – 108 Pelicans, a margin of about 12.3 points in favor of the Raptors and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. The Pelicans will be without Dejounte Murray or Jordan Poole (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (+5.0 vs -4.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Pelicans need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Raptors' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.5 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
NOTOR
Players to watch
Pelicans
Zion WilliamsonF · #121.8pts / game
Dejounte MurrayG · #56.0assists
Derik QueenC · #229.2reboundsRaptors
RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game
Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists
Scottie BarnesF · #47.2reboundsRecent form
NO
107-106L
123-120L
120-119L
141-135 OTL104-91TOR
129-125W
135-92W112-102L
117-94W
129-99
NO
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| NO | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | Record | 3-1 |
| 115.7 | Points scored / game | 115.4 |
| 120.5 | Points allowed / game | 109.5 |
| -4.1 | Adjusted margin / game | +5.0 |
| L4 | Current streak | W1 |
| 0-4 | Last 10 games | 3-1 |
| 0-2 road | Home / road record | 2-0 home |
| 26-56 (-4.5) | Last season | 46-36 (+2.8) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Pelicans
Injury report Raptors
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.