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Heat vs Bucks prediction NBA · Friday, March 12

Fri, Mar 12 · 8:00 PM ETFiserv Forum · MyMi, Bucks App

Miami Heat

1-4 · away

Projected score

119-114

Milwaukee Bucks

1-4 · home

65% win MIAwin MIL 35%

FavoriteMIA

Projected margin4.8

Projected total232

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) host the Miami Heat (1-4) on Friday, March 12 at 8:00 PM ET at Fiserv Forum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Heat a 65% chance to win and projects a 119-114 score (Heat – Bucks), about 232 total points. This season, the Bucks are 1-2 at home and the Heat are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Bucks and 1-4 for the Heat (current streaks: Bucks L1, Heat W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Bucks played the night before (back-to-back). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Heat are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Bucks 114 – 119 Heat, a margin of about 4.8 points in favor of the Heat and a total around 232 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Bucks played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter.

The overall strength gap (-6.4 vs -0.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Bucks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Heat's offense (118.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Bucks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIL -6.4 / MIA -0.6 per game

-5.9

Home-court advantageBucks at home

+2.3

Back-to-backBucks played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesMIL: 0 out, 0 questionable · MIA: 0 out, 1 questionable

+0.3

Expected marginfor Bucks

-4.8

Scenarios

Bucks win by 10+

12%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

Heat win by 10+

34%

Stat comparison Current season

MIAMIL

118.6

Points scored / game

111.4

119.2

Points allowed / game

119.0

45.3 %

Field goal %

44.9 %

31.7 %

3-point %

34.0 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

41.2

71.7 %

Free throw %

71.6 %

42.8

Rebounds / game

49.8

27.0

Assists / game

24.6

8.4

Steals / game

5.8

5.4

Blocks / game

4.0

14.2

Turnovers / game

16.8

Players to watch

Heat

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #727.6pts / game

Davion MitchellG · #27.6assists

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #711.2rebounds

Bucks

Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / game

Tyler HerroG · #114.6assists

Kel'el WareC · #98.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIA

131-106L

128-111L

115-110L

113-109W

129-117

MIL

128-116L

132-125L

127-116W

110-102L

132-100

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIA 65% · MIL 35%

ESPN BPI

MIA 69% · MIL 31%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MIA		MIL
1-4	Record	1-4
118.6	Points scored / game	111.4
119.2	Points allowed / game	119.0
-0.6	Adjusted margin / game	-6.4
W1	Current streak	L1
1-4	Last 10 games	1-4
1-1 road	Home / road record	1-2 home
43-39 (+2.3)	Last season	32-50 (-6.2)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Heat

Simone Fontecchio FDay-To-Day

Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.