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Thunder vs Celtics prediction NBA · Friday, March 12

Fri, Mar 12 · 7:30 PM ETTD Garden · Prime Video, KSBI, Thunder App

Oklahoma City Thunder

4-1 · away

Projected score

108-112

Boston Celtics

3-1 · home

40% win OKCwin BOS 60%

FavoriteBOS

Projected margin3.3

Projected total220

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Boston Celtics (3-1) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1) on Friday, March 12 at 7:30 PM ET at TD Garden in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Celtics a 60% chance to win and projects a 108-112 score (Thunder – Celtics), about 220 total points. This season, the Celtics are 3-0 at home and the Thunder are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Celtics and 4-1 for the Thunder (current streaks: Celtics W3, Thunder L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Celtics played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Jalen Williams (Thunder), Alex Caruso (Thunder), Thomas Sorber (Thunder), Nikola Topic (Thunder), Cason Wallace (Thunder) and Devin Carter (Celtics). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Celtics, but the Thunder have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Celtics 112 – 108 Thunder, a margin of about 3.3 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 220 points. Expect a tighter, lower-scoring game. The Celtics played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Celtics will be without Devin Carter. The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso (and 3 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Thunder need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Celtics

Team strength (adjusted point differential)BOS +6.6 / OKC +7.6 per game

-1.0

Home-court advantageCeltics at home

+2.3

Back-to-backCeltics played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesBOS: 1 out, 0 questionable · OKC: 5 out, 1 questionable

+3.6

Expected marginfor Celtics

+3.3

Scenarios

Celtics win by 10+

30%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Thunder win by 10+

14%

Stat comparison Current season

OKCBOS

115.8

Points scored / game

116.1

106.9

Points allowed / game

108.3

44.0 %

Field goal %

46.5 %

30.9 %

3-point %

38.6 %

32.4

3-pointers attempted / game

41.5

86.4 %

Free throw %

76.0 %

46.0

Rebounds / game

44.3

22.0

Assists / game

27.8

8.4

Steals / game

9.0

6.8

Blocks / game

3.8

13.6

Turnovers / game

15.5

Players to watch

Thunder

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #226.0pts / game

Alex CarusoG · #93.8assists

Isaiah HartensteinC · #559.6rebounds

Celtics

Jayson TatumF · #028.0pts / game

Jayson TatumF · #08.0assists

Jayson TatumF · #06.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

OKC

116-104W

96-84W

108-101W

125-114L

120-96

BOS

125-120 OTL DET

121-113W

107-103W

134-99W

125-124 OT

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

OKC 40% · BOS 60%

ESPN BPI

OKC 54% · BOS 46%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

OKC		BOS
4-1	Record	3-1
115.8	Points scored / game	116.1
106.9	Points allowed / game	108.3
+7.6	Adjusted margin / game	+6.6
L1	Current streak	W3
4-1	Last 10 games	3-1
1-1 road	Home / road record	3-0 home
64-18 (+11.1)	Last season	56-26 (+7.7)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Thunder

Jalen Williams GOut

Alex Caruso GOut

Thomas Sorber COut

Nikola Topic GOut

Cason Wallace GOut

Chet Holmgren CDay-To-Day

Injury report Celtics

Devin Carter GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.