Celtics vs Thunder prediction NBA · Wednesday, February 17
At a glance
The Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1) host the Boston Celtics (3-1) on Wednesday, February 17 at 9:30 PM ET at Paycom Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Celtics a 51% chance to win and projects a 112-111 score (Celtics – Thunder), about 221 total points. This season, the Thunder are 3-0 at home and the Celtics are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Thunder and 3-1 for the Celtics (current streaks: Thunder L1, Celtics W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Devin Carter (Celtics), Jalen Williams (Thunder), Alex Caruso (Thunder), Thomas Sorber (Thunder), Nikola Topic (Thunder) and Cason Wallace (Thunder). Prediction confidence: low.
The analysis Model
A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Thunder 111 – 112 Celtics, a margin of about 0.3 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 221 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso (and 3 others). The Celtics will be without Devin Carter. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The Thunder need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
BOSOKC
Players to watch
Celtics
Jayson TatumF · #028.0pts / gameJayson TatumF · #08.0assistsJayson TatumF · #06.2reboundsThunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #226.0pts / game
Alex CarusoG · #93.8assists
Isaiah HartensteinC · #559.6reboundsRecent form
BOS
125-120 OTL
121-113W
107-103W
134-99W
125-124 OTOKC
116-104W
96-84W
108-101W
125-114L
120-96
BOS
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.
Team comparison
| BOS | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| 116.1 | Points scored / game | 115.8 |
| 108.3 | Points allowed / game | 106.9 |
| +6.6 | Adjusted margin / game | +7.6 |
| W3 | Current streak | L1 |
| 3-1 | Last 10 games | 4-1 |
| 0-1 road | Home / road record | 3-0 home |
| 56-26 (+7.7) | Last season | 64-18 (+11.1) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Celtics
Injury report Thunder
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.