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Knicks vs Lakers prediction NBA · Thursday, March 11

Thu, Mar 11 · 10:00 PM ETcrypto.com Arena · Prime Video

New York Knicks

2-3 · away

Projected score

112-114

Los Angeles Lakers

4-1 · home

43% win NYwin LAL 57%

FavoriteLAL

Projected margin2.3

Projected total226

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Los Angeles Lakers (4-1) host the New York Knicks (2-3) on Thursday, March 11 at 10:00 PM ET at crypto.com Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Lakers a 57% chance to win and projects a 112-114 score (Knicks – Lakers), about 226 total points. This season, the Lakers are 2-1 at home and the Knicks are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Lakers and 2-3 for the Knicks (current streaks: Lakers W1, Knicks W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Knicks played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Jose Alvarado (Knicks), Cameron Carr (Lakers) and Adou Thiero (Lakers). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Lakers 114 – 112 Knicks, a margin of about 2.3 points in favor of the Lakers and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Knicks played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Lakers will be without Cameron Carr or Adou Thiero. The Knicks will be without Jose Alvarado.

The Knicks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Lakers' offense (118.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Knicks' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.0 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Lakers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)LAL +3.5 / NY +3.8 per game

-0.4

Home-court advantageLakers at home

+2.3

Back-to-backKnicks played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesLAL: 2 out, 1 questionable · NY: 1 out, 0 questionable

-1.3

Expected marginfor Lakers

+2.3

Scenarios

Lakers win by 10+

27%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Knicks win by 10+

16%

Stat comparison Current season

NYLAL

114.5

Points scored / game

118.4

110.0

Points allowed / game

114.3

42.2 %

Field goal %

52.9 %

35.9 %

3-point %

39.2 %

39.0

3-pointers attempted / game

36.2

75.8 %

Free throw %

79.1 %

48.2

Rebounds / game

38.0

26.8

Assists / game

24.0

7.2

Steals / game

10.8

4.4

Blocks / game

5.8

14.8

Turnovers / game

16.6

Players to watch

Knicks

Jalen BrunsonG · #1125.8pts / game

Tyler KolekG · #137.0assists

Karl-Anthony TownsC · #3213.8rebounds

Lakers

Luka DoncicG · #7736.0pts / game

Luka DoncicG · #778.2assists

Walker KesslerC · #148.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

106-100L

107-103L

111-102W

111-97W

133-127

LAL

127-105W

125-117W

132-123L

136-129W

103-87

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

NY 43% · LAL 57%

ESPN BPI

NY 44% · LAL 56%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

NY		LAL
2-3	Record	4-1
114.5	Points scored / game	118.4
110.0	Points allowed / game	114.3
+3.8	Adjusted margin / game	+3.5
W2	Current streak	W1
2-3	Last 10 games	4-1
1-1 road	Home / road record	2-1 home
53-29 (+6.3)	Last season	53-29 (+1.8)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Knicks

Jose Alvarado GOut

Injury report Lakers

Cameron Carr GOut

Adou Thiero FOut

Ziaire Williams FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.