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Lakers vs Knicks prediction NBA · Saturday, January 30

Sat, Jan 30 · 8:30 PM ETMadison Square Garden · ABC

Los Angeles Lakers

4-1 · away

Projected score

111-116

New York Knicks

2-3 · home

37% win LALwin NY 63%

FavoriteNY

Projected margin4.3

Projected total227

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The New York Knicks (2-3) host the Los Angeles Lakers (4-1) on Saturday, January 30 at 8:30 PM ET at Madison Square Garden in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Knicks a 63% chance to win and projects a 111-116 score (Lakers – Knicks), about 227 total points. This season, the Knicks are 1-2 at home and the Lakers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Knicks and 4-1 for the Lakers (current streaks: Knicks W2, Lakers W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Cameron Carr (Lakers), Adou Thiero (Lakers) and Jose Alvarado (Knicks). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Knicks, but the Lakers have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Knicks 116 – 111 Lakers, a margin of about 4.3 points in favor of the Knicks and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Knicks will be without Jose Alvarado. The Lakers will be without Cameron Carr or Adou Thiero.

The Lakers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Lakers' offense (118.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Knicks' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.0 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Knicks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)NY +3.8 / LAL +3.5 per game

+0.4

Home-court advantageKnicks at home

+2.3

InjuriesNY: 1 out, 0 questionable · LAL: 2 out, 2 questionable

+1.6

Expected marginfor Knicks

+4.3

Scenarios

Knicks win by 10+

32%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

Lakers win by 10+

13%

Stat comparison Current season

LALNY

118.4

Points scored / game

114.5

114.3

Points allowed / game

110.0

52.9 %

Field goal %

42.2 %

39.2 %

3-point %

35.9 %

36.2

3-pointers attempted / game

39.0

79.1 %

Free throw %

75.8 %

38.0

Rebounds / game

48.2

24.0

Assists / game

26.8

10.8

Steals / game

7.2

5.8

Blocks / game

4.4

16.6

Turnovers / game

14.8

Players to watch

Lakers

Luka DoncicG · #7736.0pts / game

Luka DoncicG · #778.2assists

Walker KesslerC · #148.2rebounds

Knicks

Jalen BrunsonG · #1125.8pts / game

Tyler KolekG · #137.0assists

Karl-Anthony TownsC · #3213.8rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

LAL

127-105W

125-117W

132-123L

136-129W

103-87

106-100L

107-103L

111-102W

111-97W

133-127

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

LAL 37% · NY 63%

ESPN BPI

LAL 41% · NY 59%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

LAL		NY
4-1	Record	2-3
118.4	Points scored / game	114.5
114.3	Points allowed / game	110.0
+3.5	Adjusted margin / game	+3.8
W1	Current streak	W2
4-1	Last 10 games	2-3
2-0 road	Home / road record	1-2 home
53-29 (+1.8)	Last season	53-29 (+6.3)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Lakers

Cameron Carr GOut

Adou Thiero FOut

Ziaire Williams FDay-To-Day

Luka Doncic GDay-To-Day

Injury report Knicks

Jose Alvarado GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.