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Grizzlies vs Celtics prediction NBA · Thursday, March 11

Thu, Mar 11 · 7:30 PM ETTD Garden · DAZN MEM

Memphis Grizzlies

4-0 · away

Projected score

109-119

Boston Celtics

3-1 · home

22% win MEMwin BOS 78%

FavoriteBOS

Projected margin9.8

Projected total228

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Boston Celtics (3-1) host the Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) on Thursday, March 11 at 7:30 PM ET at TD Garden in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Celtics a 78% chance to win and projects a 109-119 score (Grizzlies – Celtics), about 228 total points. This season, the Celtics are 3-0 at home and the Grizzlies are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Celtics and 4-0 for the Grizzlies (current streaks: Celtics W3, Grizzlies W4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 23% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Devin Carter (Celtics). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Celtics start with a clear edge. The model projects Celtics 119 – 109 Grizzlies, a margin of about 9.8 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Celtics will be without Devin Carter. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+6.6 vs -1.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Grizzlies need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Celtics' defense allows clearly fewer points (108.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Celtics

Team strength (adjusted point differential)BOS +6.6 / MEM -1.8 per game

+8.4

Home-court advantageCeltics at home

+2.3

InjuriesBOS: 1 out, 0 questionable · MEM: 0 out, 0 questionable

-0.9

Expected marginfor Celtics

+9.8

Scenarios

Celtics win by 10+

49%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

23%

Grizzlies win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

MEMBOS

115.2

Points scored / game

116.1

117.3

Points allowed / game

108.3

45.3 %

Field goal %

46.5 %

39.1 %

3-point %

38.6 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

41.5

82.8 %

Free throw %

76.0 %

50.0

Rebounds / game

44.3

25.0

Assists / game

27.8

6.3

Steals / game

9.0

6.3

Blocks / game

3.8

15.5

Turnovers / game

15.5

Players to watch

Grizzlies

Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / game

Ty JeromeG · #26.5assists

Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5rebounds

Celtics

Jayson TatumF · #028.0pts / game

Jayson TatumF · #08.0assists

Jayson TatumF · #06.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MEM

116-98W

123-103W

111-108W

123-112W

110-105

BOS

125-120 OTL DET

121-113W

107-103W

134-99W

125-124 OT

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MEM 22% · BOS 78%

ESPN BPI

MEM 22% · BOS 78%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MEM		BOS
4-0	Record	3-1
115.2	Points scored / game	116.1
117.3	Points allowed / game	108.3
-1.8	Adjusted margin / game	+6.6
W4	Current streak	W3
4-0	Last 10 games	3-1
3-0 road	Home / road record	3-0 home
25-57 (-6.0)	Last season	56-26 (+7.7)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Injury report Celtics

Devin Carter GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.