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Celtics vs Grizzlies prediction NBA · Thursday, February 18

Thu, Feb 18 · 8:00 PM ETFedExForum · DAZN MEM

Boston Celtics

3-1 · away

Projected score

116-111

Memphis Grizzlies

4-0 · home

66% win BOSwin MEM 34%

FavoriteBOS

Projected margin5.2

Projected total227

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) host the Boston Celtics (3-1) on Thursday, February 18 at 8:00 PM ET at FedExForum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Celtics a 66% chance to win and projects a 116-111 score (Celtics – Grizzlies), about 227 total points. This season, the Grizzlies are 1-0 at home and the Celtics are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-0 for the Grizzlies and 3-1 for the Celtics (current streaks: Grizzlies W4, Celtics W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Grizzlies and the Celtics played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Devin Carter (Celtics). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Celtics, but the Grizzlies have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Grizzlies 111 – 116 Celtics, a margin of about 5.2 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Grizzlies and the Celtics played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Celtics will be without Devin Carter. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-1.8 vs +6.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Grizzlies need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Celtics' defense allows clearly fewer points (108.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Grizzlies

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MEM -1.8 / BOS +6.6 per game

-8.4

Home-court advantageGrizzlies at home

+2.3

InjuriesMEM: 0 out, 0 questionable · BOS: 1 out, 0 questionable

+0.9

Expected marginfor Grizzlies

-5.2

Scenarios

Grizzlies win by 10+

11%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

Celtics win by 10+

35%

Stat comparison Current season

BOSMEM

116.1

Points scored / game

115.2

108.3

Points allowed / game

117.3

46.5 %

Field goal %

45.3 %

38.6 %

3-point %

39.1 %

41.5

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

76.0 %

Free throw %

82.8 %

44.3

Rebounds / game

50.0

27.8

Assists / game

25.0

9.0

Steals / game

6.3

3.8

Blocks / game

6.3

15.5

Turnovers / game

15.5

Players to watch

Celtics

Jayson TatumF · #028.0pts / game

Jayson TatumF · #08.0assists

Jayson TatumF · #06.2rebounds

Grizzlies

Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / game

Ty JeromeG · #26.5assists

Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

BOS

125-120 OTL DET

121-113W

107-103W

134-99W

125-124 OT

MEM

116-98W

123-103W

111-108W

123-112W

110-105

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

BOS 66% · MEM 34%

ESPN BPI

BOS 69% · MEM 31%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

BOS		MEM
3-1	Record	4-0
116.1	Points scored / game	115.2
108.3	Points allowed / game	117.3
+6.6	Adjusted margin / game	-1.8
W3	Current streak	W4
3-1	Last 10 games	4-0
0-1 road	Home / road record	1-0 home
56-26 (+7.7)	Last season	25-57 (-6.0)
Yes	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Celtics

Devin Carter GOut

Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.