Warriors vs Kings prediction NBA · Wednesday, March 10
At a glance
The Sacramento Kings (0-4) host the Golden State Warriors (2-3) on Wednesday, March 10 at 10:00 PM ET at Golden 1 Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Warriors a 68% chance to win and projects a 117-111 score (Warriors – Kings), about 228 total points. This season, the Kings are 0-2 at home and the Warriors are 2-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Kings and 2-3 for the Warriors (current streaks: Kings L4, Warriors W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Warriors played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors), Moses Moody (Warriors), Jimmy Butler III (Warriors), Dylan Cardwell (Kings), Maxime Raynaud (Kings) and Keegan Murray (Kings)…. Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
The Warriors are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Kings 111 – 117 Warriors, a margin of about 6.0 points in favor of the Warriors and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Warriors played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Kings will be without Dylan Cardwell or Maxime Raynaud (and 2 others). The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (-10.1 vs -0.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Kings need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Warriors' offense (115.5 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Warriors' defense allows clearly fewer points (116.4 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
GSSAC
Players to watch
Warriors
Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game
Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists
Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2reboundsKings
Zach LaVineG · #827.2pts / game
Domantas SabonisF · #117.2assistsDomantas SabonisF · #1116.5reboundsRecent form
GS
127-105L
111-108L
131-122W
134-114W
119-114SAC
121-96L
128-120L123-112L
130-103L
132-120Head-to-head
4 meetings scheduled this season.
SAC
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| GS | SAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 0-4 |
| 115.5 | Points scored / game | 110.2 |
| 116.4 | Points allowed / game | 122.1 |
| -0.8 | Adjusted margin / game | -10.1 |
| W2 | Current streak | L4 |
| 2-3 | Last 10 games | 0-4 |
| 2-2 road | Home / road record | 0-2 home |
| 37-45 (-0.6) | Last season | 22-60 (-10.0) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Warriors
Injury report Kings
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.