Kings vs Warriors prediction NBA · Tuesday, January 12
At a glance
The Golden State Warriors (2-3) host the Sacramento Kings (0-4) on Tuesday, January 12 at 11:00 PM ET at Chase Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Warriors a 84% chance to win and projects a 109-121 score (Kings – Warriors), about 229 total points. This season, the Warriors are 0-1 at home and the Kings are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Warriors and 0-4 for the Kings (current streaks: Warriors W2, Kings L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 20% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Dylan Cardwell (Kings), Maxime Raynaud (Kings), Keegan Murray (Kings), Ben Simmons (Kings), Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors) and Moses Moody (Warriors)…. Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
The Warriors start with a clear edge. The model projects Warriors 121 – 109 Kings, a margin of about 12.2 points in favor of the Warriors and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other). The Kings will be without Dylan Cardwell or Maxime Raynaud (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (-0.8 vs -10.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Kings need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Warriors' offense (115.5 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Warriors' defense allows clearly fewer points (116.4 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
SACGS
Players to watch
Kings
Zach LaVineG · #827.2pts / game
Domantas SabonisF · #117.2assistsDomantas SabonisF · #1116.5reboundsWarriors
Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game
Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists
Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2reboundsRecent form
SAC
126-97L
121-96L
128-120L
123-112L130-103GS
127-105L111-108L
131-122W
134-114W
119-114Head-to-head
4 meetings scheduled this season.
SAC
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| SAC | GS | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | Record | 2-3 |
| 110.2 | Points scored / game | 115.5 |
| 122.1 | Points allowed / game | 116.4 |
| -10.1 | Adjusted margin / game | -0.8 |
| L4 | Current streak | W2 |
| 0-4 | Last 10 games | 2-3 |
| 0-2 road | Home / road record | 0-1 home |
| 22-60 (-10.0) | Last season | 37-45 (-0.6) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Kings
Injury report Warriors
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.