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Rockets vs Jazz prediction NBA · Wednesday, March 10

Wed, Mar 10 · 9:00 PM ETDelta Center · KJZZ-TV, Jazz+
Houston Rockets
Houston Rockets
5-0 · away
Projected score
121-110
Utah Jazz
Utah Jazz
1-4 · home
82% win HOUwin UTAH 18%
FavoriteHOU
Projected margin11.4
Projected total231
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Utah Jazz (1-4) host the Houston Rockets (5-0) on Wednesday, March 10 at 9:00 PM ET at Delta Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Rockets a 82% chance to win and projects a 121-110 score (Rockets – Jazz), about 231 total points. This season, the Jazz are 1-3 at home and the Rockets are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Jazz and 5-0 for the Rockets (current streaks: Jazz L3, Rockets W5). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 21% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Reed Sheppard (Rockets), Marcus Smart (Rockets), Steven Adams (Rockets), Jaren Jackson Jr. (Jazz), Trey Alexander (Jazz) and Jusuf Nurkic (Jazz). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Rockets dominate this matchup. The model projects Jazz 110 – 121 Rockets, a margin of about 11.4 points in favor of the Rockets and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Jazz will be without Jaren Jackson Jr. or Trey Alexander (and 1 other). The Rockets will be without Reed Sheppard or Marcus Smart (and 1 other).

  • The overall strength gap (-7.0 vs +6.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Jazz need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Rockets' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.7 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Jazz
Team strength (adjusted point differential)UTAH -7.0 / HOU +6.7 per game
-13.7
Home-court advantageJazz at home
+2.3
InjuriesUTAH: 3 out, 1 questionable · HOU: 3 out, 1 questionable
0.0
Expected marginfor Jazz
-11.4

Scenarios

Jazz win by 10+
4%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
21%
Rockets win by 10+
54%

Stat comparison Current season

HOUUTAH
117.5
Points scored / game
116.1
109.7
Points allowed / game
124.3
51.7 %
Field goal %
45.4 %
40.4 %
3-point %
33.9 %
32.2
3-pointers attempted / game
34.8
84.7 %
Free throw %
76.6 %
44.8
Rebounds / game
46.8
28.2
Assists / game
26.8
10.2
Steals / game
5.0
6.0
Blocks / game
6.4
15.8
Turnovers / game
17.0

Players to watch

Rockets
Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / game
Alperen SengunC · #287.0assists
Alperen SengunC · #289.0rebounds
Jazz
Keyonte GeorgeG · #324.4pts / game
Keyonte GeorgeG · #36.8assists
Ace BaileyG · #198.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
HOU
WDAL128-110WSA114-110WATL121-114WATL120-110WMIL132-100
UTAH
LMEM123-103WNO120-119LLAL132-123LMEM110-105LSA117-111 OT

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Nov 13UTAHupcomingHOUFeb 3UTAHupcomingHOUFeb 9HOUupcomingUTAHMar 10HOUthis gameUTAH

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
HOU 82% · UTAH 18%
ESPN BPI
HOU 70% · UTAH 30%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

HOUUTAH
5-0Record1-4
117.5Points scored / game116.1
109.7Points allowed / game124.3
+6.7Adjusted margin / game-7.0
W5Current streakL3
5-0Last 10 games1-4
3-0 roadHome / road record1-3 home
52-30 (+5.2)Last season22-60 (-8.4)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Houston Rockets Injury report Rockets

Reed Sheppard GOut
Marcus Smart GOut
Steven Adams COut
Alperen Sengun CDay-To-Day

Utah Jazz Injury report Jazz

Jaren Jackson Jr. FOut
Trey Alexander GOut
Jusuf Nurkic COut
Lauri Markkanen FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.