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Jazz vs Rockets prediction NBA · Wednesday, February 3

Wed, Feb 3 · 9:30 PM ETToyota Center (Houston) · ESPN, KJZZ-TV, Jazz+
Utah Jazz
Utah Jazz
1-4 · away
Projected score
108-124
Houston Rockets
Houston Rockets
5-0 · home
10% win UTAHwin HOU 90%
FavoriteHOU
Projected margin16.0
Projected total231
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Houston Rockets (5-0) host the Utah Jazz (1-4) on Wednesday, February 3 at 9:30 PM ET at Toyota Center (Houston) in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Rockets a 90% chance to win and projects a 108-124 score (Jazz – Rockets), about 231 total points. This season, the Rockets are 2-0 at home and the Jazz are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 5-0 for the Rockets and 1-4 for the Jazz (current streaks: Rockets W5, Jazz L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 14% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jaren Jackson Jr. (Jazz), Trey Alexander (Jazz), Jusuf Nurkic (Jazz), Reed Sheppard (Rockets), Marcus Smart (Rockets) and Steven Adams (Rockets). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Rockets start with a clear edge. The model projects Rockets 124 – 108 Jazz, a margin of about 16.0 points in favor of the Rockets and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Rockets will be without Reed Sheppard or Marcus Smart (and 1 other). The Jazz will be without Jaren Jackson Jr. or Trey Alexander (and 1 other).

  • The overall strength gap (+6.7 vs -7.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Jazz need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Rockets' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.7 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Rockets
Team strength (adjusted point differential)HOU +6.7 / UTAH -7.0 per game
+13.7
Home-court advantageRockets at home
+2.3
InjuriesHOU: 3 out, 1 questionable · UTAH: 3 out, 1 questionable
0.0
Expected marginfor Rockets
+16.0

Scenarios

Rockets win by 10+
68%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
14%
Jazz win by 10+
2%

Stat comparison Current season

UTAHHOU
116.1
Points scored / game
117.5
124.3
Points allowed / game
109.7
45.4 %
Field goal %
51.7 %
33.9 %
3-point %
40.4 %
34.8
3-pointers attempted / game
32.2
76.6 %
Free throw %
84.7 %
46.8
Rebounds / game
44.8
26.8
Assists / game
28.2
5.0
Steals / game
10.2
6.4
Blocks / game
6.0
17.0
Turnovers / game
15.8

Players to watch

Jazz
Keyonte GeorgeG · #324.4pts / game
Keyonte GeorgeG · #36.8assists
Ace BaileyG · #198.0rebounds
Rockets
Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / game
Alperen SengunC · #287.0assists
Alperen SengunC · #289.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
UTAH
LMEM123-103WNO120-119LLAL132-123LMEM110-105LSA117-111 OT
HOU
WDAL128-110WSA114-110WATL121-114WATL120-110WMIL132-100

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Nov 13UTAHupcomingHOUFeb 3UTAHthis gameHOUFeb 9HOUupcomingUTAHMar 10HOUupcomingUTAH

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
UTAH 10% · HOU 90%
ESPN BPI
UTAH 21% · HOU 79%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

UTAHHOU
1-4Record5-0
116.1Points scored / game117.5
124.3Points allowed / game109.7
-7.0Adjusted margin / game+6.7
L3Current streakW5
1-4Last 10 games5-0
0-1 roadHome / road record2-0 home
22-60 (-8.4)Last season52-30 (+5.2)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Utah Jazz Injury report Jazz

Jaren Jackson Jr. FOut
Trey Alexander GOut
Jusuf Nurkic COut
Lauri Markkanen FDay-To-Day

Houston Rockets Injury report Rockets

Reed Sheppard GOut
Marcus Smart GOut
Steven Adams COut
Alperen Sengun CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.